| The huge potential that the tourism industry has demonstrated in its developing process has caused most of the provinces in our country to cultivate tourism as the pillar industry. Therefore the competition of the tourism industry among regions is becoming increasingly intense. However, some provinces regard the tourism industry as the pillar industry, without carrying on comprehensive and scientific appraisal to the future prospect of their tourism development. This leads to disastrous consequences in tourism resources as well as in regional industrial structure. However, whether the regional tourism industry has lasting competitiveness or not depends on its development potential. The development potential of the tourism industry is a comprehensive reflection of its future development ability. Through evaluation of the development potential of the regional tourism industry, we can have a good knowledge of the developing state of the regional tourism industry, which is helpful in making a clearer program for the future development of tourism industry.This article firstly summarized the background of research and achievements in and abroad to find out the shortcomings. By applying theories and methods from system, geography, sustainable development, competitiveness and development economics, the article defined the development potential of regional tourism industry and analyzes its characteristics, as well as its relation to competitiveness and sustainable development. Secondly, on the foundation of comprehensive analysis to the influencing factors of the development potential of regional tourism industry, the paper set up the system of the development potential of regional tourism industry. Through following certain principles, the evaluation index system for the development potential of regional tourism industry was constructed.In the aspect of empirical study, this article has evaluated and analyzed statically on the development potential of tourism industry in 31 provinces in China in 2005 with the method of factor analysis, cluster analysis etc. Then the dynamic evaluation and analysis was made with the panel data from 2000 to 2005. The analysis shows that there is a larger potential in East China than in the Middle and West. At present, the factor that influences the development potential of tourism industry most is supply potential, but in the future, potential safeguard and potential support power will become more and more important in strengthening the development potential of tourism industry of an area. Various regions must carry on a systematic and dynamic appraisal to the development potential of the regional tourism; hence a concrete development measure will be made. Finally the cooperation platform of tourism among regions should be set up to bring the development potential of the tourism into full play.Lastly, this paper summed up the main innovations in research angle and method, and put forward the problems for future closer research. |
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