A Study On The Influencing Factors Of The Claim Risk In Vehicle Insurance

Vehicle insurance has been developing rapidly in China since it renewed in 1980. At present, the business of vehicle insurance has become the most important source of premium in property insurance companies and the proportion is more than 70%. At the same time, there is a serious problem which puzzles the vehicle insurance, the high claim rate. In recent years, the claim rates of the property insurance companies are all almost more than 60%. What is more, some property insurance companies' claim rate is more than 100%. More than 70% of the total indemnity is due to the vehicle insurance, which plays so important a role in the proporty insurance industry. If we can identify the risk factors which influence the claim rate, available measures can be adopted to play the rate down.In this paper, On the basis of reviewing the former research and learning from international experience we find three kind of risk factors which influence the claims of vehicle insurance, as follows, risk of vehicle, risk of insured, risk of insurance characteristic.The main contents and research conclusions are as follows:Chapter one is the introduction part which proposes this paper's research object, the claim risk of vehicle insurance, and summarizes the research meaning.Chapter two combs the related literatures and proposed the research angle of this paper.Chapter three analyzes the status quo of the problem of vehicle insurance claims and introduce the vehicle insurance mechanism and experience of developed countries. Then we make one normative analysis on influencing factors of the claim risk.Chapter four is an important and innovative part in this paper. We choose 15000 samples which include 7500 individual ones and 7500 group ones. These data are all collected from a property insurance company which possesses a big share of the domestic proporty insurance market. The empirical analysis of this paper is carried through from the claim frequence angle. First we carry on one ANOVA to the three kinds of risk factors and get the factors that influence the claim frequence evidently, then we contine carrying on a decision tree analysis and get three decision trees. The analysis includes two steps, first, we put all the 15000 samples in one analysis model, then we analyse the individual samples and group ones independently. The result is as follows:the group samples'average claim frequency is less than individual ones' evidently. Furthermore, the influencing factors are diffenent. That we can get from the decision tree is premium influencing the individual claim farthest, but what influences the group claims most is the type of vehicle.Chapter five proposes related policy suggestion according to the empirical analysis results.