The Study Of Meta-Synthesis Model Of Project Life-cycle Risk Control

The implementation of project will face the impact of a large number of risk factors. The input for project activities is huge, and if project can not finished on time in acceptable quality standards within budget, the loss suffered by the project owner will be great. Dramatic changes of environment and long durations make the large-scale project a complex and risky activity. Delay of schedule, overrun of budget, poor quality, safety accidents and environment pollution are some common negative impact of project risks. Risk management and control has an important role in the achievement of the project objectives, while the practice and theory of project life-cycle risk management and control need to be further developed. Compared to integrated research of risk management from foreign researchers, our study is just limited to specific risk management process, specific risk analysis model and model application, research on integrated risk management and control method is not enough, the study on how to develop and introduce the dynamic continuous risk control method is inadequate. Strengthen the research on integration methods and technologies and put into the risk management and control practices in project life-cycle will definitely raise the rate of successful project and improve domestic project risk management level as a whole, which also have positive effects on economic growth and social development.Project is a complex system consists of multi-stakeholders, many risks,many phases and many objectives. Meta-synthesis method can be used to improve the effect of risk control activities by integrate the expert knowledge as a whole. The major factors of meta-synthesis are all project stakeholders, all phases and all project objectives, which definitely will affect the quality and difficulty of meta-synthesis. Adoption and implement of risk responses need the knowledge and experience of different experts, the resource to input. The consequence of the risk response is another influence factor. Analysis on the effects of the six factors mentioned above is the basis of meta-synthesis.Project life-cycle risk control meta-synthesis model based on systematic view, from the perspective of project life-cycle, study the identification, quantification of risk factors, estimate and evaluation the effect of risk factors and risk response from all parties, integrate and use the result of risk assessment and response, establish a dynamic continuous risk control decision-making model to improve the efficiency of project life-cycle risk management. In order to establish the meta-synthesis model, the thesis analysis the relations between any two factors among project stakeholders, risk factors, the implication scope of expert knowledge, project phases and project objectives, the structure of risk control meta-synthesis model is clearly interpreted. By define the management object and the assumptions of the model, the thesis set up an index called Risk Expected Deviation (RED), which can be widely used to measure the specific risk or risks effect on risk existed period, project life-cycle and different project phases, RED is numerical comparative basis of decision-making process. Meta-synthesis model is established and the process and steps to perform this model is detailed explained.The model considers the dynamic change of risks in fours phases: the feasibility research phase, design phase, implement phase and operation phase. Considered the risk loss and the risk responses positive effect toward all project objectives include schedule, budget, quality, safety and environment objective. The model assumes that the probability of occurrence of risk factors subject to triangular probability distribution. The parameter of triangular probability, risk loss and the positive effect of risk response are estimated by the experts with defined standards. RED index is set for evaluate the risk, compared to the previous assessment by multiply the probability and loss, the new index considered five objectives, and can be divided to four phases by multiply weights which is given by experts in order to distinguish the different importance of phases of existed risks. Then according to the quantitative RED index rank the risks in each phase, give the priority to the risks which generate greater RED in specific phase and take corresponding risk response, this is mainly because the limited resources cannot meet all risk responses'need. The impact of carried risk responses and unsettled risks will be taken into consideration on the next project phase, order the rest risks again and control the new priority risks until project is over. The manner to control risks can make the project life-cycle in a relatively low risk level within limited resource. A case is given to illuminate the use of the meta-synthesis model, the result is as the same as the validation, prove that the model can be adopted to carry out the dynamic continuous risk control, to continue lower the whole risk level of the project and finally achieve a acceptable risk level which is harmless to the success of the project.