The Study Of The System Theory And Integration Of Life-cycle Engineering Project Risk Management

In this dissertation, systematic risk management for project object isinvestigated by using system engineering technique, probability theory,simulation technique, fuzzy mathematic method and multi-object decisiontechnique, etc. As a result, an integrated project risk management system isproposed to support life-cycle risk management activity in project. The maincontents and achievements of this dissertation are as follows.Comprehensive and systematic risk management process is presented byanalyzing and comparing with some current risk management processes, whichcan be helpful to build integrated risk management system.Considering the lack of quantitative analysis in risk identification, thetheory of using factor analysis and neural network model to identify risk ofproject is investigated in order to add quantitative identification ability.Systematic classification of risk quantification is made and amelioratedrisk matrix method,expandable engineering methodology, fuzzy faulty tree andevent tree methods are proposed to treat difficult quantitative and exactdescriptive risk.. The combination of simulation technique and CIM model, combination ofPERT and CIM model, neural network model and fuzzy evaluation model areinvestigated, in order to assess and evaluate project risk in economics,scheduling, safety and environment aspect. Some cases are included fordemonstration.. Several methods for risk response strategy and evaluation are proposedincluding several risk control methods ,such as risk milestone graph, riskforewarning system, etc.. An integrated method for life-cycle project risk management system isproposed, based on DSS theory. The framework, information model, anddatabase structure of system are defined, and module design and simulationcomputation are also made. The result from the dissertation can increaseefficiency of risk management.