The Research And Application Of Risk Assessment Model Of The Whole Life Cycle Of The PPP Project

Under the overall background of economic globalization in the 21st century, the construction pace of China’s public infrastructure projects is seriously restricting the rapid economy development. To remit the governments’financial pressure in public infrastructure construction, the adoption of PPP financing mode to conduct public infrastructure projects has become a trend. However, the application of PPP financing mode in China is late, with many insufficient in the theoretical research of PPP projects. The preliminary works of PPP project risk management, including the risk identification and risk assessment of PPP project, has given a main expression to this. The PPP projects enjoys characteristics such as numerous participants, great capitalized cost, high financing cost as well as long construction cycle, etc, making the risk factors of it various, complex and periodical. Different participants of PPP project will be faced with different risks in each period of the whole life cycle, and will be faced with different influential levels within the same risk. This thesis conducted assessment of PPP project risk from the perspective of established project companies. As one of the most important participants in PPP project, project companies run through every stage of PPP project’s whole cycle and have direct or indirect connection with other project participants. The risk of the whole PPP project would, to some extent, be reflected from the perspective of project companies. Therefore, the perspective of project companies is taken to conduct assessment to the risks of PPP projects.In this thesis, the topic selection background as well as research purpose and meaning was firstly introduced, followed by the analysis of PPP financing mode in which the definition, feature as well as classification of PPP financing mode were introduced. Also, it compared and analyzed the PPP financing mode with traditional modes from many perspectives, concluded the advantages of adopting PPP financing mode to the construction of public infrastructure projects as well as the commonly used risk assessment methods. After that, the definition and feature of risk was explained. From the perspective of whole life circle, the circle of PPP project was divided into the early phase, implementation phase, franchise operation phase as well as non-franchise operation phase. Also, the potential risks of each phase was recognized and analyzed to set up the assignment rules of each risk factor as well as the indicator system of the risk assessment in the whole life circle of PPP projects. Then, through the establishment of CIM risk assessment model, the risk degree of each stage of PPP project was calculated, and with the application of analytic hierarchy process, the weighted value of the criterion layer to general object was confirmed to calculate the integrated risk degree of PPP project. At last, the KH bridge was taken as an example to conduct empirical stimulation of PPP project’s risk assessment model of whole life cycle, together with the conclusion and expectation for the research results and shortcomings of this thesis.