The Study Of The Relationship Between The Fluctuation Of Chinese Stock Market Prices And The Policy Events

Theoretically, the fluctuation of stock prices has been influenced by many factors, including macro-factors--economic trends, economic cycles, economic structure etc; medium-level factors--industry growth, enterprise finance, the financial quality of listed companies, and even significantly depending on micro-factors--investor psychological game. Lots of scholars'studies have indicated that Chinese stock market has been more influenced by "policy" factor among the many factors influencing the fluctuation of stock prices. Therefore, further studies of the interaction between the fluctuation of stock prices and the policy appear essentially important. The thesis discusses and probes into the necessity of the government's adjustment and control of the stock market and its basic means by the studies of the documents about the fluctuation of stock prices and the reasons held by scholars at home and abroad. And, the author has found and concluded that the influence of consistent actions and policies like GDP, CPI and M1 towards the fluctuation of the stock market is secular and not obvious, yet the short-term impacting and concrete policies(policy events) is the principal factor which creates the fluctuation of stock market.Then, by introducing a methodology of identifying ticks, case study and regression analysis, the author makes a practical analysis on the link between stock price fluctuation and policy events, advocating that the state stock market policy should gradually diminish its influence; the investors are more rational, and the governmental control means is more advanced. But time delay, lack of discretion and stability, or loss of policy power still come up during the control. For more detailed study, the author classifies the policy events and major policy events into four types, and then works out their relationship with stock market fluctuation over different periods, reaching a conclusion that administrative policy is a usually-adopted means by government and characterized with immediate return, but easily imposes destructive impact on the market. In the days to come, de-administration of policy and its tempo, sequence and strength should be minded; the economic policy influence varies as market condition changes, especially the stock market fluctuation owes largely to the adjustment of stamp duty rate; public opinion policy is more favorable for those policy makers due to its mild strength, public influence and expected results enabling regulators and investors more acceptable.At the end, on the basis of the former theoretical and practical evidence studies, the thesis points out that the main reasons for the abnormal fluctuation of Chinese stock market:the system is imperfect; the market efficiency is not enough; the policy-making is not prudent enough; the proper prospective management and public opinion management systems has not been established; the diversifying target management system which real economy and virtual economy combine is scarce. From that the thesis puts forward the following advice on the policy:to propel the stock market reform and to make complete multilevel market system construction; to gradually upgrade the stock market efficiency; to establish new prospective management and public opinion management systems; to enhance the prudence and stability in the policy making; to make "macro market value management" be the new concept in policy making.