The Research On The Relationship Of The Price Terms Of Trade For China And Export Commodities Structure

Whether the terms of trade of developing countries will tend towards worse in the long term is one of the focuses of debates in the theories field. This paper mainly studies the changes of the price terms of trade for China and the relationship between the terms and export commodities structure, and the impulse response function method and variance decomposition method are employed in empirical analysis.This paper is composed of four sections: the first section is introduction, illustrating the objective of the study and its significance, as well as outlining the related studies of foreign and domestic.By studying the relevant data of 1988-2008 of China, the second section studies the trend of changes in price terms of trade and import and export structure of China, and the results of the studies are as follows: price terms of trade in total, primary products, manufactured goods and labor-intensive products appear a decreasing tendency in China. The increase of the import price index is the leading cause; For capital-intensive products, the price terms of trade has a upwards tendency that isn't obvious, and the change of the price terms of capital-intensive products is mainly caused by the change of the import price index. Structural changes in import and export commodities of China are mainly the proportion of primary exports declining, dominance of manufactured goods is becoming increasingly obvious, the proportion of capital-intensive exports is on the rise. Further shows that the Chinese export structure has improved.The third section is the empirical analysis. By using the data of 1988-2008 of total price terms of trade and the structure of export products, this section studies the relationship between these two parts, and the impulse response function method and variance decomposition method are employed in empirical analysis.The fourth section is conclusions and several suggestions.