Transformation Of Industrial Structure And Economic Growth: View From Upgrading Of Consumption Structure

Because of the cyclical downturn and the international financial crisis, China's economy of 2008 has suffered its most serious impact since the reform and opening up. Chinese government implemented the proactive fiscal policy, moderate loose monetary policy, giving cars, home appliances and other commodities subsidies to expand the domestic demand, succeeding in making growth of the 2009 economy achieve 8.7%. In long-term perspective, we have to understand what will ensure Chinese sustainable economic growth. With the upgrading of consumption structure as the research object, the paper answers above questions by goods demanding elasticity of income theory and input-output technology. Firstly, we establish the logical analytical framework of the relationship among consumption structure upgrading, the transformation of industrial structure and economic growth, and then do responding empirical analysis. Although empirical analysis is not systematic because of limited data, it does not undermine the basic conclusion. Based on the law of consumption structure upgrading, we get the conclusion that China has entered the stage of consuming real-estate and automobile in generally. With the transforming D-N matrix, we analyzes the mechanism of consumption structure upgrading to industrial structure, and get the conclusion that China is still in the process of accelerating industrialization. With the analysis of potential consumption structure upgrading and urbanization, combined with the international experience, we get the conclusion that China has enough room to support growth at least two decades, but the growth may be slightly lower than the previous.