Research On The Security Of Food Supply And Demand Tight Balance

Food is the foundation of the national economy as well as humanity's livelihood essential item. It relates the national economy and the people's livelihood the strategic material.Not only the food security question is the economic problem it concerns the national long-term peace and good government the social question.This article in summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars to the food supplies, the food demand as well as in the food balance between supply and demand research foundation, has carried the analysis from the two aspects of theory and the real diagnosis on the food market undulation characteristic,has limited between the food security concept as well as the food balance and the food security relations,and has carried on the appraisal to our country's food security policies,has limited the grain supply and demand tight balance concept and the characteristic, the analysis grain supply and demand tight balance regulative principle.Forecast about the food demand that,this article on the present stage our country food production and the expense situation,through the collection data,will establish the food supplies and the food demand model separately. Forecast food supply capacities and the demand of the next 5 year. First,this article divides into the food according to the concrete use the food ration,the feed with the food,the industrial used food,the seed food and the food loses five aspects, then the basis food consumption quantity data, and profits from the concerned scholar to the food demand measure method,establishes the model separately, finally will use the model forecast the next five year's food demands.About the food supplies rate of prediction,this article uses the Fourier's series law,the gray forecast law,and the multi-dimensional linear return law separately then establish food yield forecast model,forecast the future five year food yields, and will use the combination analytic method to carry on the weighting to these three kind of forecast result,will take its final output to take the forecast result.The article finally proposed guarantees the food supply and demand tight balance, the realization food security main countermeasure suggestion. From the consummation of food administration mechanism, the establishment of new price support system, the enhancement of synthesis productivity construction, the enhancement of food reserves ability construction, the consummation of international trade strategy system and the enhancement of special weak trend community aid. The six aspects proposed the establishment food supply and demand tight balance safety control mechanism.