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China's Food Security Research In Future Based On Balance Of Supply And Demand

Posted on:2020-04-24Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X ZhengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330596995161Subject:Land Resource Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China is a big agricultural country and a major consumer of food.The problem of food and clothing for the people has always been a major issue concerning the people's livelihood in the country.The people depend on food for survival,and the food depends on the land to grow."Hide the food on the earth,hide the food at the science and technology and storage the food in the people" are the main ways to ensure food security in China.However,China has a large population and is the most populous country in the world.firstly,Despite the slowdown in population growth in recent years,the trend of continued population growth in the future is inevitable,and population growth is bound to drive the growth of food demand.At the same time,China has less land available,and the reserved land resources of cultivated land are limited..With the economic development,the pressure of cultivated land protection is increasing.Food production is the basis for economic development,social stability and the improvement of people's living standards.If food cannot be basically self-sufficient,food security will be a very serious problem.Therefore,it is crucially important to understand the current situation of food production and predict future food production,and to adjust the balance between supply and demand of food at the macro levels to reduce the probability of food crisis.This article carries out related research through seven parts.The first part introduces the research background,purpose and significance,sorts out the domestic and fore ign literatures,proposes research objectives and research ideas based on the existing research foundation,formulates research technology routes,and gives research plans.The second part elaborates the relevant research theories,constructs the connectio n between food security and theory,and uses this as the theoretical basis of research to complete the content of food security research.The third part mainly analyzes the influencing factors of food security,from two aspects comprehensively analyzes the factors affecting food security of food supply and demand,and provides the research basis for the prediction of the fourth part of basic data.The fourth part uses qualitative and quantitative methods to predict China's cultivated land area,Ratio of total area planted with grain to total area planted with crops,multiple cropping index,grain yield,population and per capita food consumption in 2050,and obtains more reasonable and credible prediction results.The fifth part analyzes the balance of food supply and demand in China based on the analysis of the fourth part of the results.In 2050,China has a large food gap,and the demand for food is much larger than that of food supply.The self-sufficiency rate only reaches 87.56% in 2050.At the same time,based on different scenarios,the internal digging potential is given to analyze the food shortage and solve the problem of insufficient food demand.The sixth part is to make recommendations on the problems of China's food security.The seven parts draw the research conclusions and research prospects.
Keywords/Search Tags:Food security, the Balance of supply and demand, Salt-tolerant rice, NAR neural network model, ARIMA model
PDF Full Text Request
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