The Research About The Reversed J-Curve: The Trade Between The China And The U.S. In The Background Of The World Financial Crisis

The fluctuation of one country's currency exchange rate has direct influence on the export goods priced by foreign currency and import goods priced by domestic currency. Consideration about the demanding elasticity of goods, we can confirm the final influence to the goods'sales that from the fluctuation of the exchange rate, as well the influence to international trading from the fluctuation of exchange rate. When meeting with the "Marshall--Lerner Condition", the value of domestic currency decreasing, which will cause the deterioration of country's export, then improvement, trading balance will be shown as decreasing first and increasing later, which seen as a'J'vividly. As the same reason, under the condition of satisfaction of related elasticity requirement, the valuation of the domestic currency will cause the trading balance to improve first and deteriorate later, as a reverse'J', which is the reverse'J'line studied in this paper.From the reform of RMB exchange rate in 2005, the RMB has been in the way of appreciation, especially the rythm of appreciation speeded up in 2007, thus the exchange rate effective to the trade balance has been notable gradually. The sub-credit crisis broke out in the U.S. in the 2008 reduce the total demand in the world, out foreign trade is under the double pressure. In 2010, along with the recovery of the U.S. Economy, the RMB exchange rate has been to the focus problem between the China and the U.S. again. The U.S. put the pressure to force the RMB to appreciate by alleging that the China is the country that manipulate the exchange rate. The U.S. want, to relieve the large trade deficit between the U.S and China by the RMB appreciation.By the VAR model, RMB exchange rate and the international trading between the China and the U.S.A have been studied among the first quarter in 2002 and the second quarter in 2009. Through the comparing analysis between these two countries in actual exchange rate, GDP, CPI and some other economic variables, the model estimating result determine mechanism and level of influence caused by exchange rate.The result demonstrates that, China-America trading data has shown some characteristic of reverse'J'line under the background of the appreciation of the RMB. However, the impulse analysis result does not show such effectiveness. We think the reason to the non-existence of reverse "J" curve includes the follows:the difference of the export and import goods'demanding elasticity; the export corporations be lack of bargaining ability; our country's macroeconomic policy. Plus the distinguish between current world economic crisis caused by American sub-loan and mechanism difference of exchange rate between China and United State. According to the reason mentioned above, we should stabilize the speed and rhythm of the RMB appreciation, utilize the macro-economic policy reasonably and effectively, resist of the trade protectionism, optimize the exporting industrial structure and enhance the export corporations'ability of prevent the exchange rate risk, in order to make the mechanism of the RMB exchange rate and the China-America trade more fluent and effective.