The Formation And Influencing Factors Of The Urban Real Estate Bubble In China

As the continued, fast and healthy development of Chinese economy,the pillar function of real estate has become more obvious in national economy development. It's fast, stable and continues development will affect the national economy rise and life level of citizens directly. The price of real estate go rising fast recently. The high housing price which lead by the real estate bubble will not only affect the daily consumption of citizen, lead to overheated economy and inflation, but also affect the healthy development of real estate industry. Hereby, The problem of real estate bubble attracts the great concern from people of all social circles.This paper analyses the formation and influencing factors for the real estate bubble of the city in our country from the micro and macro perspective of real estate market. We analyse the formaiton of real estate bubble through theory analysis and build molds, and collect the related data of 30 provincial capital city and 5 cities specifically designated in the state plan; Dalian Qingdao Xiamen Ningbo Shenzheng from the decades of 1998-2007, applying the multivariate regression analysis method on panel date, and we get the conclusion that (1)The average living space of citizen,interest rate ,real estate credit volume has a negative correlation with housing price rising. (2)Average disposable income of citizen, price of land transactions, supply of currency, real estate investment volume has a positive correlation with housing price changing. (3)The size of the urban population do not has great affection to housing price rising. On the base of analysis, we present proposal from the aspect of real estate finance policy,land market adjustment and tax policy in order to push forward the healthy development of city real estate industry in our nation.