Bubble Measurement Of Real Estate Market And Analysis Of Influencing Factors

Throughout the development of China's real estate industry,it can be divided into three stages.The first phase,which dates back to the 1990 s,is called welfare housing.The government distributes the houses built to the residents free of charge,mainly for the employees of state-owned enterprises.The second stage is the era of commercial housing.The government carries out the system of bidding,auction,hanging out and giving way to state-owned land.Major enterprises take the land and expand rapidly,mainly representing Vanke,poly,merchants and other real estate enterprises.The third stage is the policy control stage.With the rapid growth of house prices and the substantial increase of the overall sales of the industry,the government has intensively issued a series of policies in recent years,including "limited purchase,limited sale,limited price",and vigorously advocated the development of the housing rental market.The purpose is to avoid speculation caused by high housing prices to bring huge bubbles to China's real estate industry,so as not to affect the healthy development of the economy.Since 2003,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have made it clear that the real estate industry is the pillar industry to promote China's economic development.The rapid development of the real estate industry can drive the development of many upstream and downstream related industries,such as the financial industry,building materials industry,hardware industry,landscaping industry and so on,bringing a lot of employment opportunities.In addition,the system of bidding,auction and listing in our country has led to fierce land bidding among various real estate enterprises,which has greatly increased the government's financial revenue and become the main source of local government financial expenditure.Since the end of 2014,with the introduction of a series of policies,such as the introduction of talents in first tier and second tier cities,the liberalization of settlement restrictions,the central bank's reduction of interest rates and the reform of monetary shed,the housing price in China has experienced a round of rapid rise.In this round of rise,especially in the major cities of the Yangtze River Delta,the price rise is the most obvious.Therefore,it is particularly important and necessary to measure the size of real estate bubbles in key city of Jiangsu province and analyze the factors that affect them.On the basis of studying the theories and influencing factors of real estate bubbles at home and abroad,this paper enumerates various methods for measuring the real estate bubble,and compares the advantages and disadvantages of them.Finally,a method combining index method with factor analysis is selected.At the same time,from the different indicators which reflect the development level of financial market,economic strength and real estate industry of each city in Jiangsu Province,six of them are selected as clustering factors to cluster 13 prefecture level cities in Jiangsu Province.On this basis,four cities(Nanjing,Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou)with strong comprehensive strength are selected for research.After defining the research object,the author first makes a preliminary analysis on the development of the real estate market in four cities and makes a preliminary judgment on the follow-up development trend.Secondly,based on the four indicators reflecting the size of the real estate bubble in the city(the total amount of investment in real estate development / total social fixed assets investment,the construction area of commercial housing / completion area,the rate of real estate growth,the actual GDP growth rate,the ratio of house price to income),the weight of the four indicators is determined by factor analysis,and the four of Jiangsu Province in 2010-2017 years is comprehensively evaluated by the model.The real estate bubble size of city is analyzed.Finally,the grey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the factors that affect the size of city real estate bubbles.This paper illustrates the applicability of the index method and factor analysis method to the bubble measurement,and adds an example of the application of the model in the measurement of the real estate bubble size.Through the analysis of the status quo and related empirical conclusions,the relevant policies and suggestions put forward hope to give the government some help to the risk control of the real estate bubble and help the healthy development of the industry.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)since 2015,the bubble of four cities has begun to touch the safety warning line,which is in line with the trend of rapid decline in housing prices after the end of 2014.(2)the largest real estate bubble in Nanjing is the city with the highest investment risk in the key cities of Jiangsu.(3)per capita disposable income is the most important factor affecting the size of the real estate bubble.