An Analysis Of China's Export Structure

Since China's reforming and opening in the late 1970s, China has experienced a period of rapidly economic growth.During the 30 years from 1978 China has kept a 10% increasing rate; GDP has increased from 9.75 billion dollar to 1430.69 billion dollar. Simultaneously China has also gained a great development in import and export trades, the trade amount increased from 20.64 billion dollar to 2563.26 billion dollar. China's statue of export and import trade in the world has promoted from 32nd to 3rd. But under the impact of subprime crisis and global financial crisis which began from the U.S.,China's economic growth rate was slowed down.In order to understand how export contributes to the economic growth, it is necessary to review China's export changes in the past 30 years.From the analysis of export changes in China, we will find how the global financial crisis impact on China's export trade and how to make relative policies.This article begins with macroeconomic and micro-finance theory; analyzes the changes of export products and trade patterns;estimates the proportion of export trade in the contribution to economic growth. Furthermore, this article also analyzes the reason that the changes of export trade are not the most significant factors compare with other industries which raise economic growth. Finally, this article analyzes other possible factors which will affect China's export under the influence of financial crisis and propose some policy recommendations.This article includes 4 parts:introduction; changes of China's export trade; the contribution of China's export to economic growth; thinking for current situation of China's export.The second chapter reviews China's export changes.First, this part reviews structural changes of export. Based on the statistical data from "China statistical yearbook", this part investigates the products structural changes from two fields:one is primary products and industrial products and the other is capital-and technology-intensive goods and labor-and resources-intensive goods.Second, this part reviews the changes of export pattern structure. The concept of this structure was definite at first. Then this part investigates the changes of export pattern structure from the proportion changes of general trade, processing trade and other trade. At last, this part casts doubt on China's strategy of developing processing trade from the problems of multipliers, the efficiency of technology import and resources consumption.Since China's reforming and opening, the proportion of industrial products in export has far beyond the proportion of primary products. Also the capital-and technology-intensive goods in industrial products has beyond the proportion of labor-and resources-intensive goods.China's structure of export is continuously optimized. The stable proportion of processing trade is a key factor to attract capitals, but the problems in its development should be pay more attention on.The third chapter analyzes export's contribution to economic growth.First, this part reviews relative theories and compares Neo-classical economic growth model with Structuralism. Considering China's unbalance situation, Feder's Non-equilibrium model was induced in this article.Second, the practical economic problems were tested by using relative econometrics methods. In order to clearly verify the contribution of export, the contribution of export and adjustment of industrial structure to economic growth were analyzed and compared together.The changes of industrial structure have great influenced economic growth. Comparing with the export and non-export part of economic growth, one of the significant factors induce rapidly increase is the shift of resources from traditional department to modern department.In the fourth chapter, the article proposes the current problems and makes some recommendation.First, the reason that China's trade increases faster than outputs increase was analyzed by using Vertical Specialization Theory.Second, this part indicates that the main reasons caused China's export severe decline are the global financial crisis and RMB appreciation. Some suggestions are indicated as following to keep China's rapid economic growth:Develop the labor-intensive goods export.Optimize export structure, impel capital-and technology-intensive goods export.Utilize advanced technology to upgrade industries.Develop the innovation ability.