| Financial crisis that outbroke in the United States in 2008 had brought a great impact on the global economy. The hundred-year financial crisis was rooted in the bubble burst of US housing and excessive financial innovation, and real estate credit was the source of the financial crisis. In contrast with China's real estate market in recent years, house price was rising in the sound of regulation, bank real estate credit expanding rapidly and the uncertainty of real estate industry had increased the risk of real estate credit. Therefore, this paper dedicated to the research of credit risk assessment and management system of China's commercial banks, with providing great significance to banks to avoid risks and maintain financial stability.Recalling the development process and policy changes of China's real estate credit in the recent economic cycle, real estate industry faces a huge risk at present. Certain problems have emerged, such as irrational growth in real estate credit of China's commercial banks, uncertainty of the sources of repayment and loan in real estate development, the constantly increasing default risk of individual housing loans, the huge risk of land reserve loans, the risk of real estate financing excessively focusing on banks, the operational risk in bank's credit risk management and so on.. The real estate credit risk of commercial bank is primarily affected by the impact of the borrowers, commercial banks, and the environment. For the borrowers, according to the theory of information economics, adverse selection and moral hazard are important factors that affect the borrowers not repaying the loan in full and on time; for commercial banks, loans management issues, quality issues of credit officer and agent problem of bank managers are important reasons that lead to credit risk; for environmental factors, the macroeconomic environment, real estate control policies and real estate industry risk play important influence on the real estate risk.Since the formation of corporate credit risk depends largely on the financial position, therefore credit risk measures can be translated into measures of financial risk. The paper selects 18 financial indicators of 37 listed real estate companies to establish the evaluation index system, and uses the same set of data to estimate discriminant analysis model and Logistic regression model. Empirical studies have shown that discriminant analysis model and Logistic regression model predicted results are better overall, and compared with the Logistic regression model, the prediction accuracy of discriminant analysis is higher, and discriminant analysis model is more easily to be used; two methods show that the company profitability is an important basis for evaluation of credit risk. In addition, there are asymmetric for the forecast of two models, because the models make a high predictive accuracy for credit non-default group, while a low predictive accuracy for credit default group. On the one hand, it is a true reflection of reality, in general, very few good companies make false account and exaggerated profits, while poorly managed enterprises have greater moral hazard. On the other hand, only do quantitative analysis is not enough to distinguish credit default businesses, qualitative analysis should be combined with quantitative analysis to make multidimensional analysis, or small errors can also cause great damage.In order to prevent the source of real estate credit risk, the paper gives corresponding credit risk management measures from the government perspective and bank perspective respectively, including expanding real estate financing, establishing and improving financial risk compensation mechanism, developing the secondary mortgage market, separating of real estate development loans and personal housing mortgage loans, closed operation and management of real estate development loans, diversification of mortgage rates, strengthening the prevention of land reserve loans risk and so on. |
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