The Study Of The Trend Of Regional Flow Of Chinese Rural Labor Surplus

During the past more than 30 years, as China's economic development, there are the distributions of rural labor force of cross-regional migration in three regions. The scholars at home and abroad have been a high degree of attention and study on the distribution of rural labor force. But most domestic and foreign scholars just studied the reasons, models and obstacles of the distribution of rural labor force, and in research methods respect, most study of the labor force just used descriptive analysis, there are few study involve in quantitative of the distribution of rural labor force.Because of few relevant quantitative analysis of the distribution of rural labor force, this article first uses the way of theoretical analysis to lay the theoretical basis for this article; then uses the way of empirical analysis, using the panel data of the 31 provinces in 1997-2007 to analyze the stock, quality and income of the three areas. The part of Empirical study in this article uses two methods of rural laborers cross-flow of the east central and western in china: first, uses population data to study the distribution of rural labors force of cross-regional migration in three regions; second, uses indicators analysis. Through the established the index of the location quotient of rural surplus labors, the location quotient of labors absorption of the secondary industry, and the degree of mobilization of rural labors surplus labors and so on, then draw out China's 1997-2007 regional general flow of rural labor force and trends in the view of quantitative point. And then the article predicts the regional rural labor force and regional Development in the future to predict future trends of the distribution of rural labor forceThe empirical results showed that: the ratio of agricultural labor in the total rural labor force of the east, the ratio trend of agricultural labor in the total rural labor force, the central and the west in china had shown downward trend, and the ratio of agricultural labor in the total rural labor force of the east is the lowest; both net income and labor force quality of the rural labor force had significantly improved. The difference between the three rural areas had expanded. The total of the rural labor force in the three regions retained relatively stable. But the trend in 1997-2007 years had been declining; the ratio of the rural labor in the Chinese total rural labor force, both the central and the west had shown rising trend, the east had shown downward trend, but the ratio was still the largest. For the east region, before 2001 the local surplus was the main source of labor force needed in its industrialization before 2001 when it still had residual , but since then , it has not been enough for the demand. For the mid region, the index of labor absorption of the secondary industry which keeps medial was larger than the transfer level of rural labor before 2001 but after that, has been kept steady. While in the west region, the cross-region flow of rural surplus manpower has strong relativity with the country's economic cycle. Overall, in 1997-2007 year, the central and the west in china are the main regions that the rural labors move out; and the east id the main region that the rural labors move in. In the future 2010-2020, the total rural labor forces of the three regions have a more significant decline, due to gradually develop of the central and the west in the future, the two regions attract more rural labor force, combined with the eastern cost of the transfer of rural labor employment increased, so it can predict that in the future the cross-flow of rural labor force will be reduced.