Research On The Evaluation Of The Start-up Stage Hi-tech Enterprise's Investment Value

Known as the Chinese "NASDAQ", GEM has been launched successfully so that a large number of entrepreneurs keep coming to the fore and numerous hi-tech achievements keep getting out of the lab and into the market. With the generation and the development of a growing number of hi-tech enterprises, they have become the favored target of venture capitalists. For all investors, the earlier stage of enterprise life cycle the hi-tech enterprise is in, the larger the investor's percentage of shares is. But the cash flow that the start-up stage hi-tech enterprise generates is zero or negative so that the investment value of the start-up stage one is difficult to test. So how to quantify the negative cash flow and establish a set of the assessment model for the start-up stage hi-tech enterprise's value become the key issue in the investing process of venture capital.The dissertation firstly analyzed the traditional assessment method of the enterprise's value and pointed out the income approach, namely the discounted cash flow model, relative to the other methods still applies to the evaluation of the hi-tech enterprise's value. Then the rapid growth and zero or negative cash flow, which are ones of the features of start-up stage hi-tech enterprise analyzed in this dissertation, were analyzed and quantified. The estimated value of high growth rate in the supernormal growth phase is obtained by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. And the zero or negative cash flow is quantified by using the fuzzy mathematical theory and the partial differential equation. Combined with the developing features of start-up stage hi-tech enterprises, two-stage discounted cash flow model is more suitable for the evaluation of the start-up stage hi-tech enterprise's value. The fuzzy two-stage discounted cash flow model is established in this dissertation by adding the above quantified models of high growth rate in the supernormal growth phase and the zero or negative cash flow to the traditional two-stage DCF.In order to verifying the practicability and rationality of modified model, a start-up stage hi-tech enterprise at HF is analyzed as the case to demonstrate the process of enterprise's value by the modified model. Finally, we make a conclusion of the research work in this dissertation and then presented some possible research directions in the future.