The Quantitative Analysis And Microscopic Prediction Model Of Vehicle Emissions

With the economic increase and urban development, the motor vehicle has already occupied an important position in the people’s daily life. The vehicle emissions result in the city air pollution problem being increasingly notable. So understanding the vehicle emissions and control it with pertinence has already aroused domestic and external scholar and government attention.Combining with the domestic and foreign scholars research results, the study research the model method basing on IOVM and EOCM, taking OBS-2000 system as the experiment instruction from three aspects of vehicle emission measure method, quantitative analysis and model.Firstly, the thesis simulates the effect of speed, slope, fuel parameters and temperature, humidity on vehicle emissions based on MOVES software. And design the vehicle emission measure experience in realistic condition by using the OBSO-2000 system. Further, each influence factor can be quantitative analyzed basing on measure data, the factor include different experimental routes, drivers, measure time, road gradient and so on.Afterwards, the article according to quantitative analysis result and measure data instructs measurement data base, as the data support for model. After a comparative analysis, the method of least squares linear regression is selected to establish vehicle emission micro-level forecast model, as well as the model variables are determined by applying Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman correlation coefficient. The thesis further sets up the motor vehicle dynamic parameter model and vehicle operation model basing on IOVM and EOVM.Finally, the thesis applies the proposed model and measure data to calculate the model parameter, and evaluates the model through R2and slope of discrete curve both forecast value and the actual value, according to the data come from authentication database and measurement database. The results show that R2tends to be consistent, the slop is 1.so the established model has better accuracy and stability.