Online Public Opinion Dissemination Simulation And Analysis In Emergency Of Hazardous Chemicals Leakage Into River

In recent years, the chemical industry safety accident occured frequently in our country, with the properties of corrosivity and toxicity, hazardous chemicals leakage, especially polluting water, may heavily threaten human life and property, leading to online opinion crisis. This paper analyzes the network public opinion in dangerous chemical leak emergency based on the simulation model, to explore the effective strategy of government crisis management, and provide support for crisis management in leakage emergency in our country.The main job of this paper is as follows:(1) The paper studied the the general law of development of dangerous chemicals leaking. Meanwhile, the online public opinion about incidents was cutted into several slices to analyze easily.(2) Based on system dynamics, this paper builds a novel simulation model to analyze the online public opinion diffusion mechanism in dangerous chemicals water pollution emergencies and to explore for effective emergency strategies. The proposed model includes the netizen sub-block, net mediators and government sub-block, and five cases of water pollution accidents sparkled by hazardous chemicals leakage are introduced as study samples to test the effectiveness of the proposed model.(3) This paper develops a multi-agent-based simulation model for online public opinion dissemination in emergency accidents, to explore the appropriate crisis information release policy for controlling public panic stemming from hazardous chemicals leakage accidents into rivers. In particular, two attributes of the crisis information, i.e., the truthiness (true or false news) and attitude (neutral, positive or negative emotion), are considered. Meantime, four main agents in virtual community, citizens, government, media and opinion leaders, are included in the proposed model. The empirical study takes four typical accidents of hazardous chemicals leakage into rivers as studying cases.The study found that,1) enhancing the transparency of government public news, the capacity of the government crisis management and the effectiveness of government response policy can effectively control and guide the online public opinion diffusion; 2) the government should leave enough time to prepare treatment measurements for emergency accidents before the real news is released; 3) if the government releases false news to conceal or distort the truth about emergency accidents, the government reputation will be seriously hurt, and it will agitate an even larger degree and longer duration of online public panic;4) If the government does nothing and does not release any information about emergency accidents, the public panic might get out of control and some rumors will be propagated widely.In short, in terms of the model simulation results, the paper proposed relevant suggestions for the govenment from four aspects which were the transparency of government public news, the capacity of the government crisis management, the effectiveness of government and crisis information release policy.