The Decomposition Of China’s Carbon Emissions Reduction Targets In 2020

In recent years, the climate problem more and more gets the common concerns of the people all over the world. A large amount of carbon dioxide emission is the culprit of global warming. Climate warming has become the world’s countries inevitably responsibilities and obligations. As one developing country which has rapid economic growth, China is faced with the pressure and challenge from shortage of resources and ecological environment. In the year of 2013, the proportion of our country’s carbon emissions in the world’s total carbon emissions reached 29%. China has become the largest emitter of carbon all over the world. Therefore, in the process of reduction of the world, our country shoulders great responsibility. Our government announced in 2009 that our carbon emissions intensity will cut 40%-45% in the year of 2020 compared to 2005. On the other hand, Our country has a vast territory and abundant resources, and the regional economic development is very uneven. So the regional emissions responsibility cannot be the same. Instead, we should consider various factors and find the most reasonable allocation in order to reach the most effective way of distribution. So this paper is based on this background, and starts from two popular view angles at present, namely fairness and efficiency, and researches our country provincial decomposition of carbon emission reduction targets. The main content of the thesis is as follows:(1) Under the fairness perspective, this paper selects three kinds of popular fairness distribution, namely distribution of hereditary, egalitarian distribution and the ability to pay for the national carbon emissions targets are allocated between the 29 provinces or cities, and compares the results of the three fairness distribution. In the distribution of the hereditary principle, provinces which have large historical emissions still get a significant share of carbon emissions quota, and it can effectively guarantee the sustainable development of high emissions provinces in the future, but it is bad for the provinces which have low emissions. Egalitarian distribution of populous provinces survival emissions requirements, but less limits the population and backward economy of some of the region’s future development. Ability to pay distribution considers reduction ability and demographic factors, ensure that the economic development of underdeveloped regions and populous provinces to some extent.(2) Under the efficiency perspective, using data envelopment analysis(DEA) and zero-sum-gains DEA model to allocate China’s carbon emissions targets among the provinces. After several iterative adjustments, we eventually achieve technical efficiency effectively in all provinces. In the process of Adjustments, the carbon emissions quotas move from low efficiency of provinces to efficient provinces. Eventually the eastern provinces which have developed economy and high output efficiency have more carbon emissions quotas, while the provinces which have backward economy and low output efficiency province get fewer carbon emissions quotas. To abandon this allocation fairness, this way only considers maximum use of carbon emissions, so the economic underdeveloped regions has greatly restricted the future development.(3) Then, by using the fixed cost allocation model(FCAM), we try to add the principle of fairness to the efficiency of allocation model as a constraint condition. In ensuring the overall system efficiency maximization, we try to make allocation results close to the fair distribution as far as possible. Then we compare the results of three kinds of distribution in the end. Distribution results show that this kind of distribution ensure the effective distribution, and is more close to the fair distribution than zero-sum-gains DEA model. So this proves the accuracy of this kind of conjecture.(4) Finally, according to the result of distribution, combined with the economic development situation of the various provinces, we explore the low-carbon development path of various provinces in the future. In the end the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward to all kinds of region economic development.