Study On Development Model Under The Environmental Carrying Capacity Constraint

The environmental carrying capacity is the foundation of a regional development, humanity's various social activity and economic development are giving pressure to the environment, but the pressure should certain extent.The paper analyzes the theory and methods of carrying capacity, ecological footprint, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and vector mode were used to calculate the environment carrying capacity. The system dynamic (SD) and multi-objective program were used to study on the development model, besides compared the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, and especially combined the theory to the social and economic. Therefore it will best guild the national economic and social plan, also enrich and development the theory and method system of planning environment impact assessment. The conclusions as follows:(1) As the methods of calculating the environment carrying capacity, the result of ecological is absolute value, the result of AHP and vector mode relative value, the trend of three methods result is uniform. Mostly, one method can combine with other method, the AHP has some subjectivity, in the ordinary circumstances this method is not recommended.(2) The SD and multi-objective program were used to study on the development model of Wuhan City. the results of two methods are uniform. The SD is the method of dynamic simultaneous, need extra adds existed regulatory factors. The multi-objective program is a static method, its result is rigorous, but it's discontinuous. If the two methods are combined, it will generate a best result.(3) Through calculated the EC of Wuhan, the results showed that the trend of EC is increasing, but the rate is very slowly, lagged far behind the rate of pressure. The environment of Wuhan is over drafting.(4) The results of development model study showed that the rate of economic of Wuhan should at 8%~10%, the target of the"12th five years plan"should be lowed. The index of environment and energy saving of new plan should be made clear.