Comprehensive Risk Assessment Of Urban Disasters

With global climate change and rapid urbanization process,disaster has been a great challenge which human face.Because of the higher population and economic density,cities as the great hazard-affected bodies are increasingly becoming the center of disaster-defense in international and national level.In china,urban-disaster loss accounted for 70% of the loss caused by all disaster. So,disaster management especially the risk management has attracted more and more research interests.Risk assessment,as one of the vital tools,is considered much more important than ever before.In order to improve the capability of cities to resisting disaster,this paper carries out research on multi-hazards composite risk assessment by establishing assessment index system and mathematic model.In view of domestic and international disaster risk assessment technique and model,the paper chooses index to build index systems from hazards,physical risk,exposure-fragibility,resilience or ability to cope and recovering,and then taking the 19 localities of Shanghai as research example.The paper firstly illustrates the conception of disaster and city-disaster,after that,the paper analyses the structure and character.Moreover,the paper sums up the research process and problems of risk assessment of disaster,and systemic reviews the risk assessment systems.Secondly,the paper define the theories of city-disaster composite risk assessment,and then establish city-disaster composite risk assessment index system.Thirdly,in order to examine the index system,the paper takes the 19 localities of Shanghai as example, combined with character of disaster-consequence of shanghai from 2000 to 2006,compute the risk value of every area, validates the index system,summarizes the characters and evolvement trend of disaster risk of Shanghai, and then puts forward some suggestions.Finally,the conclusion and the orientation of research for future are discussed.