Study On Evaluation Model Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Manas River Basin

With the economic development, the living standards as well as the urban scale enhancement, our country's water consumption structure has changed much, the contradictory between water resources supply and demand is serious day by day, especially in the Manas River basin which located at the arid and semi-arid area. Along with the "11th Five-Year Plan" proposed that accelerating the industrialization and the urbanization in BingTuan, all social sectors the water consumption and the water used guarantee rate demand will be obviously enhance, water resources will become the bottleneck to the national economy development. Therefore, based on reading the domestic and foreign literature which related to the water resources carrying capacity evaluation, this article collected the basin basal data and divided the water carrying capacity mulriple system into four subsystems: the water resources subsystem, the social development subsystem, the economic development subsystem and the ecological environment subsystem. It evaluated the water carrying capacity in different level year and provides the theory basis and the support for water resources's sustainable development in the Manas river basin.The main contents of the study:(1) Take the Shihezi region as the typical area in Manas river basin, the article analysee and predicted its water resources's supply and demand situation. The water supply analysis takes the utilization situation of the surface water and the ground water as the main basis, combine the water engineering construction in the near future and then ascertain the water supply in this area. The water demand forecast take the basic principle"many methods, comprehensive analysis, reasonable decision", take the fixed quantity forecast as the basic method, get the demand water forecast result after the comprehensive analysis.(2) According to the index system establishment's principle, the article constructs water carrying capacity evaluation index system and gives the weight in shihezi area. The author divides the water carrying capacity mulriple system into four subsystems: the water resources subsystem, the social development subsystem, the economic development subsystem and the ecological environment subsystem. From the Shihezi water resources characteristic, and consult the national water resources evaluation guidelines, introduce the expert advice and learn from the domestic and foreign authoritative sustainable developments index value. Meanwhile it combines the AHP method and entropy value method to make certain all levels of evaluation index's weight. In this way it can reduce the oversized deviation which due to subjectivity and the data message imperfection.(3) The article evaluates the shihezi area's water carrying capacity in different year through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and matter-element model. The results show that the Shihezi area water resources carrying capacity will assume the benign tendency, but it was still at non-carrying condition. At the same time, the article gives the the main factor which affect the Shihezi water resources carrying capacity enhances through various indexs'degree of membership, and put forward the the plan measures to improve the Shihezi area water resources carrying capacity.