Evaluation Research On Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of The Yellow River Basin

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,water resources are the basic guarantee for supporting a country and regional economic and social sustainable development and a virtuous circle of ecological environment.With the development of economy and society,water shortage and water environment deterioration are becoming more and more serious.Water resources carrying capacity not only has gradually become one of the important indicators to measure the coordinated development of regional population,economy,resources and environment,but also can provide a scientific basis for building regional water security and achieving the sustainable development of social economy,resources and environment.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign research progress,this paper starts from the four dimensions of quantity,quality,domain and flow to construct a multi-dimensional watershed carrying capacity evaluation index system.Considering the evaluation index quantification and level standard Deterministic problems,construct a normal cloud model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the basin.The Yellow River Basin was selected as the research object,and the current water resources carrying capacity was quantitatively studied.In order to solve the problems in the current social and economic development of the Yellow River Basin and the utilization of water resources,and to improve the water resources carrying capacity of the basin,the following progress was made in this study:Aiming at the uncertainty of evaluation index and classification criteria,a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on normal cloud theory is established.Firstly,it is determined that the characteristic parameters of the cloud model can be characterized,and the membership matrix of each evaluation index is calculated by the forward cloud generator.Then,according to the evaluation index weight and the membership degree matrix,the fuzzy transformation occurs,and then the research object belongs to different evaluation levels.According to the degree of membership,the level of eigenvalues and confidence criteria are used to judge the water resources carrying capacity evaluation level of the research object.The sensitivity of index weight analysis by One-at-a-time(OAT)method is the main innovation of this paper.OAT method was used to analyze the sensitivity of index weightsand judge the stability of the evaluation results.According to the absolute average rate of change of the carrying capacity of the four dimensions of quantity,quality,domain and flow in the Yellow River Basin,the sensitivity index was determined.The calculation results show that the sensitivity indicator of water volume was the per capita water resources,the sensitivity index of water quality dimension was the discharge of ten thousand yuan output value sewage discharge of output value,the sensitivity index of water area was the treatment rate of soil erosion,and the sensitivity index of water flow was the area ratio of water area.The water resources carrying capacity of the overloaded area could be quickly and effectively improved by regulating sensitivity indicators.The evaluating index system and model were applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity in 2015.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity level eigenvalue of the Yellow River Basin was 2.70,which was in the critical state of the third level.Meanwhile,the water quantity dimension carrying capacity level characteristic value was 2.61 which was in Grade ?.The water quality dimension carrying capacity level characteristic value was 2.15 which was in Grade ?.The watershed dimension carrying capacity level characteristic value was 1.71 which was in Grade ?.The water flow dimension carrying capacity level characteristic value was 2.23 which was in Grade ?.Except for Gansu,Ningxia,Shanxi and Henan province,which were in Grade II,other provinces were in Grade ?.Except for Gansu,Ningxia,Shanxi and Henan province,which were in Grade II,other provinces were in Grade ?.The evaluation results were consistent with the evaluation results of SPA-VFS,Matter-Element Extension Evaluation Model and Support Vector Machines,which indicated that the evaluating index system and model based on quantity,quality,domain,flow were effective and feasible,and the results were reliable.This research could provide multi-dimensional quantification of water resources carrying capacity evaluation system and method.