| In vast area of out country, there have built up nearly 90,000 reservoirs and dams so as to promote the beneficial and abolish the harmful. At present, there are about 1/4 large and mediums 2/5 minitype reservoirs and dams have safety problems of different degree, especially do the earth-tock dam. In these safety incipient faults, leaks crack and landslide stands out. Therefore, it is very important that using even mature theory and method analyzing and evaluating the condition of leak and deformation, according to prototype observed data of earth-rock dam.In this dissertation by means of the advanced theories of statistical regression analysis, gray system, artificial neural network and engineering fuzzy sets, together with the characteristics of earth-rock dam structure and real operation behavior, it is researched the analysis of the prototype observed data and the safety evaluation of observed behavior of earth-rock dam. Then some new models and methods are presented. The main contents are as follows.1. The genetic analysis for system error and lourse error of the prototype observed data of earth-rock dam is carried out. The preprocess method of prototype observed data is presented. The hysteresis quality and reason of piezometric level is analyzed and the estimation method for delay time is gained. The select principle for the observed data is drafted. The temporal curve of water level and piezometric level is founded and analyzed. Some factors have been taken into consideration, such as the water level rangeability of up-down stream, the seepage quality of dam material, the intensity of rainfall, the change of soil body particle structural array style due to solum consolidation and the effect of upstream mud filling on seepage state. Establish the statistics model of the observed dataof piezometric level, and adopt stepwise regression method to calculate. Combining the measured data of LuHun dam, we can check and demonstrate the above theory and method.2. Through consolidation theory and engineering practice, the main settlement of dam is aging displacement which decays with time going on, and whose accumulate settlement adopts hyperbola model. But, because of its inquality flexibility and adaptive, the model can't make full use of the model building advantage of hyperbola model, and also can't attain the optimal model building effect. In view to the above deficiency of the general hyperbola regression model, in this dissertation, we intake a third parameter "c"', and create the hyperbola regression three-parameter model which greatly enhances the model's autoregulation self-optimization and self-adaptability. The reliability of the modeling principle and rationality of the modeling method have been proven in theory, and two kinds of methods to calculate each parameter are given, in the example of the observed data analysis of LuHun dam settlement, the hyperbola regression three-parameter model, the general hyperbola regression model and other models have been upbuilt. The model further demonstrate its theory value and actual meaning, and it supplies a new mathematic model of realistic value for prototype observed data analysis.3. A lot of analysis and research indicate the aging deformation of earth-rock dam has monotonicity. Point this feature, we indraft gray system theory, create the now information model of equal dimension of the GM(1,1), by using its characteristics that it can externalize the system's latest information and can reflect the engineer's dynamic change . Through the research to GM, we find there lies an optimal dimension area. Because gray model realizes the prediction for future based on current information, we need a given quantity known data sequence to build model successfully. On the other hand, with the accumulation of sampling data, the effect of prophase external condition on actual output becomes more and more less. If we pick out the out of-data information not in a neighborhood of the current dot, we cannot only proje... |
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