Study On Comprehensive Evaluation Model Of Earth-Rock Dam Safety Monitoring Based On Grey Theory

On the basis of understanding grey theory, the paper makes improvement of grey GM(1,1) model in three respects, and the GM(1,1) model which has been improved is used in the prediction of the settlement of earth dam. The result proves the effect is obvious. In addition, the paper discusses on some multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods, and analyzes the evaluation process of the multi-level vague overall evaluation model and the grey cluster model, on this basis, a new comprehensive evaluation model is proposed and used in the comprehensive evaluation of earth dam in this paper. The main contents are as follows:(1) In view of the deficiency of traditional GM(1,1) model, this paper sets up a new GM(1,1) model from three respects of improving the smooth degree of the original series, optimizing background values and optimizing the time response sequence. The new model is used in the prediction of the settlement of the Luhun earth dam. The result shows that the fitting and prediction effects of the new GM(1,1) model, which has enriched the prediction model of the settlement of earth dam, is better than the traditional GM(1,1) model.(2) On the basis of mastering multi-index comprehensive evaluation theory, the paper analyzes synthetically evaluation methods used commonly, and analyzes the evaluation process of the multi-level vague overall evaluation model and the grey cluster model in detail.(3) Based on the status of the safety comprehensive evaluation of earth dam, according to the advantages and limitations of the fuzzy integrated judgment and the grey clustering method, the paper sets up a new method named gray—fuzzy evaluation model, combining the two methods.(4) The gray—fuzzy evaluation model, which not only has the ability to evaluate complex structure system,but its calculation is also simple and accurate, is used in the observed behavior of the Luhun earth dam and in the safety evaluation of the Qipanshan dam in this paper. The new model gives full play to each advantages of the fuzzy method and the grey theory, moreover, it further expands the theoretical method of the comprehensive evaluation of dam.