Highway Construction Projects, Traffic Forecasting Methods Research

On the basis of the problems of the current traffic volume forecast on the high-type highway in our country . This paper has a survey on Hebei province's and Handan city's current traffic volume on the high-type highway and their geographical locations, natural resource distributions, social economy and population growing and studies these relative elements with traffic volume. Besides , it analyses their relative relations among them and chooses the typical routes for special dates as the base of the traffic volume forecast and establishes three models with gray theory ,fuzzy prognosis and genetic algorithms and has a forecast on the traffic volume on the primary routes net in Hebei province and Handan city in the future by MATLAB, MATHEMATICA4.0. Furthermore, it recommends the optimum model on traffic volume forecast adapting to the facts of Hebei Province and Handan city _ gray forecast and fuzzy assignment by analyzing and comparing these forecast traffic volume with the actual value . Finally ,this paper puts forwards to have a comprehensive evaluation on the concrete examples such as G101-G309, Shitai expressway, Chengyu expressway etc basing on the gray forecast and has a conclusion that the comprehensive evaluation should be fitted for the traffic volume forecast on the high-type highway on the basis of the facts. The research result will play an active role on the traffic volume forecast of the high-type highway and deciding one key highway project in Hebei province and our country.