Study On Evaluation System And Method Of Traffic Impact Ex-post Evaluation Based On Grey Theory

Along with the process of urbanization and the motorization speeding up, The traffic demand continues to grow rapidly, resulting in the imbalance of supply and demand of urban transportation system. In order to reasonably guide the balance of the traffic supply and demand and reduce the impact of new projects on road traffic, most of the cities in our country introduce the traffic impact assessment(TIA) of construction project. Although the traffic impact assessment has made certain achievements, but in the actual operation of the process, it also is found some shortcomings, so we should verify the evaluation of the traffic impact assessment through the Traffic Impact Ex-post Evaluation(TIEE) to improve the traffic impact assessment management system of construction project.This study firstly outlines the shortcomings of the traffic impact assessment in China. This study proposes to improve the traffic impact assessment system through evaluating the traffic impact ex-post evaluation. Then the paper introduces the basic definition and necessity of the evaluating the traffic impact ex-post evaluation and analyzes the reasons for the slow development of traffic impact assessment in China and refines the operation and management mechanism of the traffic impact ex-post evaluation, referencing the management mechanism of project post-evaluation.Secondly, through the comparison between the TIA and TIEE, the paper proposed the general process and content to carry out traffic impact ex-post evaluation. And on this basis, this paper constructs the evaluation index system in traffic impact ex-post evaluation of construction project, including traffic demand forecast indicators, traffic improvement measures after former evaluation indicators and the traffic impact assessment report integrity indicators. Then the evaluation model of traffic impact ex-post evaluation is established with Grey-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of project post evaluation.Finally, taking Urumqi Times square project as an example, this paper uses the evaluation index system in traffic impact ex-post evaluation evaluate the impact of traffic on Urumqi and verify the validity of the model of the traffic impact ex-post evaluation, and provides practical guidance for the optimization of the traffic impact assessment and the development of the traffic impact ex-post evaluation.