Research On Forecasting The Freight Traffic Demand And Simulation Of Traffic Assignment In The High-Tech Park

With the development of our national economy, some special areas for high and new technology or techno-economy appear in more and more cities. As a new area at just the beginning of planning for development since 1991, the high-tech park in China has not yet been developed perfectly, and there's no enough detailed information as reference for the study and analysis in communication and transportation. For this, the work of traffic demand forecasting can not follow the past experience methods, but from the traffic characteristics of high-tech park itself.A traffic survey is the base of traffic analysis. The paper deals with LUGU high-tech park, collects future development planning data of this park, and also does a detail traffic volume survey and analysis for the current situation. To outstand traffic characteristic of high-tech park, the paper mainly researches the traffic change of this region in which freight traffic is the major traffic. On the basis of ascertaining influence factor of freight traffic trip, the paper establishes freight traffic forecast model suitable for this region, and predicts yearly freight traffic and peak hour freight traffic of each company in the park in the target year.For that traffic assignment research of high-tech park is at the preliminary stage, grounding on special regionality, the paper does the study on traffic distribution, which is different from the general"four-stage"method. By analyzing the main freight roads in the park and company freight trip direction, the paper determines some main gates in-out of the park as the distribution of freight traffic, then does the traffic assignment.Combined with the simulation characteristic Ant Algorithm, according to the thought of first analog then assignment, the paper puts forward the structure of traffic assignment research of high-tech park,. To imitate the randomicity and probability in traffic, on the base of Ant Algorithm, the paper puts such traffic characteristic elements as impedance function limit in actual road section, control time at intersection and the choice at left,right and straight direction into computing as the form of function, which can improve Ant Algorithm, and make it suitable for traffic assignment in high-tech park.On the basis of the characteristic of freight traffic distribution in LUGU high-tech park, the paper calculates the peak hour freight volume, uses the improved Ant Algorithm, and assignments the traffic to each road, then realizes the application of Ant Algorithm in high-tech park, and completes the traffic assignment of peak hourly freight volume in the future year. In the end, the paper analyzes the traffic load of the road network in LUGU high-tech park, and puts forward the suggestion of traffic management.