| The ocean is a resources mine which is rich and not exploited enough, and it will be the important space that our human could carry out sustainable development. The Jiaozhou Bay is the cradle in which the city Qingdao formed and developed. But with the course of urbanization and the rapid development of the coastal economy, the total contamination drained to the Jiaozhou Bay is increasing, and the pollution is more and more serious in the coastal waters of Jiaozhou Bay.For coastal waters, tidal flow is the most basic hydrodynamic factor, and the contamination will be transported and diffused with the movement of tidal flow. For protecting the Jiaozhou Bay and preventing deterioration of environment inside the bay, it is very important to learn about the tidal current movement and regulation of transportation and diffusion of contamination.The 2D hydrodynamic model was developed in this paper, which is used in Jiaozhou Bay. The control equation was solved by the finite difference method ADI, and the wet and dry judgment method is applied to deal with the water dynamic boundary. The model is used to simulate the tidal movement in Jiaozhou Bay. The simulated values coincide well with the measured ones..Based on the foundation of the hydrodynamic model, mathematic model for the transportation and diffusion of contamination was built up. The model is used to simulate the concentration of pollutant COD,N,P of Jiaozhou Bay in 2001, which agrees well with the factual.This paper introduces random factors to mathematic model. Uncertain conditions are involved in the input of differential equations, and probability characteristics are studied in this paper. In the model, through changing the water dynamic boundary condition and the diffusion coefficients, we can observe the changing trendency of the maximum value of the pollutant COD. The confidence interval can be given in the basis of a certain probability level.By the former work, the whole status of tidal current and the regulation of contamination transportation and diffusion in Jiaozhou Bay is clear. The reference is given to the later study. |