Research On Hydrological Risk Management During Operation Of The Middle Route Project For South-to-north Water Transfer

The Shortage of water resources has become a constraint on economic and social development and affects the stability of the society, particularly in the northwest and northern regions of China. South-to-North Water Diversion is one of the strategic measures to alleviate the acute shortage of water resources, and optimize water resources allocation and improve the ecological environment in northern China. It has important strategic significance for the protection and promotion of northern China's economic development; environmental improvement and social stability. The Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Haijiang. Its main tasks are to supply to domestic water and industrial water in North China Plain, and include ecological and agricultural water in flood reasons. It plays an important role for the protection the urban water supply along the Middle Route Project. However, how to protect the operation and management of water transfer with scientific, reasonable, efficient and safe in order to reduce the risk of potential losses, and to maximize the project benefits? It is urgent need to answer. Therefore, it is essential to carry out research on hydrology in risk management during operation of the Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer.In this paper, the risk management issues are studied when the Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer puts into operation, and the feasible management measures are proposed. The main research results are summarized as follows:(1) Summarize the concepts and connotations of risk, risk management, hydrology and hydrological risks.(2) Using Fault Trees to identify the hydrological risk factors on Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer, and the mechanism of the main risk factors are analyzed.(3) Using the SWAT model to simulate the runoff of Danjiangkou Reservoir for different scenarios in order to study the influences of climate change, land use and the artificial water supply on hydrological risks. Bayesian Network is used to appraise the hydrological risks. The results show that the climate change is the greatest hydrological risk; the operation of South-to-North Water Diversion in Shanxi Province will also has a great impact on adjustable water; land-use change has smaller impact the adjustable water, mainly because relatively small changes in surface.(4) Using statistical analysis methods to analyze the situation encountered about droughts and floods in history and runoff in recent years between waterhead aera and water demand areas. The results show that the trend of the total waterhead area is flood, but the the risks of severe drought are remain exist; the north areas is obviously the dry, serious droughts have occurred many times in history, and the trend of more drought and water shortage risks is much heavier in the 20th century; the risks of severe drought occours in all areas at the same time can not be ignored.(5) In the last chapter, the risk of scheduling plans for droughts, floods and plentiful rains year are framed respectively, which can be used for risk management and decision-making departments for reference.