Prediction Of The Result Of Conservative Therapy Of Ectopic Pregnancy By Serum β-hcg, Serum Pregnendione And Other Correlated Factors

Objective: To investigate valuable factors that affect the results of conservative therapy of ectopic pregnancy (EP),and prediction of the valuable factors about results of conservative therapy of EP.Methods: 171 patients of EP at Fujian Provincial Maternal and Children health hospital in the period between September 2005 and July 2010, were randomly divided into three groups using random digits table, and the each group was treated with different treatments which include mifepristone amethopterin ,and then the results of conservative therapy of ectopic EP were traced .. Logistic stepwise way was used to find valuable factors and evaluate prediction of valuable factors of the results of conservative therapy of EP.Results: Serumβ-HCG ,serum pregnendione, and maxium length of hydrops of Douglas′s cul-de-sac (Unless specifically indicated,the three types of values were acquired before treatments) are important valuable factors affecting results of conservative therapy of EP.(their P values are 0.003,0.007 and 0.025,respectively.). When we supposed that the results of conservative therapy is positive when the Serumβ-HCG value of the patient is more than 2000mIU/ml,its sensitivity ,specificity,positive likelihood ratio,negative likelihood ratio, accuracy rate are 52.94%,83.21%,3.15,0.57,77.19%, respectively.When we supposed that the results of conservative therapy is positive when the serum pregnendione value of the patient is more than 10ng/ml , its sensitivity ,specificity,positive likelihood ratio,negative likelihood ratio, accuracy rate are 47.06%,89.78%, 4.60,0.59,81.29%,respectively.When the indexes of serumβ-HCG and serum pregnendione were used together to predict results of conservative therapy of EP, its sensitivity ,specificity,positive likelihood ratio,negative likelihood ratio, accuracy rate and false positive rate are 35.29%,97.81%,16.11,0.66,85.38%,2.19%, respectively.Conclusion: Serumβ-HCG ,serum pregnendione and maximum length of hydrops of Douglas′s cul-de-sac are important valuable factors affecting the results of conservative therapy of EP. When serumβ-HCG value of a patient is more than 2000mIU/ml and his serum pregnendione value is more than 10ng/ml ,the two indexes played a important role when they were used together to predict that the results of conservative therapy of EP is failure . So the indexes of serumβ-HCG and serum pregnendione can be used together to predict effectively the results when the results of conservative therapy of EP is successful.