| As strategic resources supporting China's economic and social development, Oil relates to national economic growth and national energy security. Oil has not just stay in a physical concept, but becomes an important element in economic growth all over the world today, as same as capital, labor and technology. As fast development of our country's economy, china has entered a period of mass consumption and oil imports. Oil consumption increased, for example, china's oil consumption in 2007 was 370 million tons. China has become the second largest oil consumer after the U.S. overtaken Japan. The shortage of oil increases year by year. Also, more and more we depend on foreign oil. In year of 2009, our country's degree of dependence upon foreign trade had been up to 52%, and as estimated, it will soar to be 60% in year 2020. Oil plays a key role in promoting economic development ornational strategy as important industry raw material and strategy supplies, guaranteeing oil supply enough or not directly relate to our country politic, economy and military's safety.At present, all the risk factors affecting stability of supply is increasing, so that China's oil security has become increasingly prominent. The sources of China oil import overly concentrate, passage single, oil strategy store not yet establish, and the growth of oil futures market is not perfect, species single, oil import just be used as an means meeting the emergence of indentation of local oil supply and demand. The safety of our country oil import is suffering the unprecedented challenge. Therefore, how to right evaluating the risk of China oil import, to evade risk, and to insure our country oil import trade safety is that we must face important theories and pay attention to the problem of practice. Oil is the strategic goods. China's oil security is mainly the oil imports supply chain security. This thesis finds the main factors leading to the oil imports supply chain risk, establishes a preliminary evaluation index system, makes quantitative assessment of the oil imports supply chain security using AHP. Based on the AHP and Grey Correlation Analysis, this thesis chooses the important strategies to avoid the oil imports supply chain security effciently.In view of the oil import supply chain risk factors, the supply chain of China's oil imports strategic measures of risk aversion is proposed based on full study of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom, three kinds of different models of oil-security strategy, divided by time:short-term strategies, medium-term strategy and long-term strategy. Respectively, it has a comprehensive and detailed analysis, for example, raise home supply capacity, enhance exploration of sea oil, import from more countries, gradually establish and perfect oil reserve, save energy and develop the substitute of oil, upbuild oil finance system and so on, hope it can help to know more about China's oil security. |
