The Correlation Analysis Of Sino-us Bilateral Trade In Goods And Services

As the world's largest developed and developing countries, the United States and China are highly complementary in trade. This is decided by the economic and trade structure of the two countries. U.S. economic structure is based on technology-intensive industries and some related industries. Emerging service industries take a large part of American's economy. The main part of China's economic structure is labor-intensive industry and traditional services. The development of service trade is very imperfect in China. Seen from the trade structure, China is exporting lots of textiles, footwear, toys, other labor-intensive products and a small percentage of trade in services while the U.S. exported aircraft, electronic equipment, chemical machinery, equipment and other high technology products. Services exports accounted for a large proportion in U.S..Inspired by the trade imbalance, this thesis is going to describe the Sino-US dynamic influencing relationship between services trade and goods trade. Granger causality test proves that there is a mutual causal relationship between them. Then the paper establishes a VAR models and impulse response function to describe the dynamic influences between them.Conclusions show that there is a positive relationship between the trade volume in goods and services. Goods trade has obvious stimulus to service trade and itself. The impacts of service trade to goods trade and itself are not obvious, due to the weak development of China's service trade. Therefore, we should accelerate the investment in services trade and further adjust the structure of exports. Use the mature development patterns of goods trade to promote service trade, finally to reach the development of both.