| The aim of this paper is to study the phenomenon of progressive stockout on the county retail supply chain in China. According to this phenomenon, the AHP-ANN model was constructed after the risk analysis, then the corresponding improvement strategies were presented. On the subject of characteristics, these methods which include literature study, operational research and mathematic stat, simulating test with validation were adopted.Firstly, it defines the concept of supply chain and the supply chain risk, analysis bullwhip effect and ANN. It provided the theoretical basis for the research of progressive stockout on the county retail supply chain that compared the research which content the retail, supply chain risk in China with abroad..Secondly, the structure and characteristics which belongs to the county retail supply chain are different from those which belongs to the urban retail supply chain. The risk of progressive stockout on the county retail supply chain in China will be caused. These risk affects are enormous, it must be paid enough attention and substantially limited by all of the enterprise which on the county retail supply chain, so that we could set up a good development and high-efficiency of county retail supply chain. In this paper, we carries on in-depth analysis to organization construction, mechanism and information structure which are main reasons for the progressive stockout on the county retail supply chain in China,Thirdly, it was established for a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model which study on AHP—ANN of progressive stockout on the county retail supply chain, and then in order to test the model, a example which comes from a county retail supply chain in Hebei was provided.Finally, in order to promoted the county retail supply chain, it must be control the risk of county retail supply chain, which include optimize organizational structure, implemented scientific decision, information sharing, establish a prewarning system and so on. |
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