Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Economic Growth

The current world is faced with instability and uncertainty.As a specific form of uncertainty,the uncertainty of economic policy will have a certain impact on economic growth.Improving the understanding of the impact of economic policy uncertainty and the ability to deal with it will help stabilize economic growth.China’s economy has entered a new normal.To achieve future economic growth,both the scale of output and the growth efficiency should be ensured.How economic policy uncertainty affects economic growth,especially in growth efficiency(measured by technological progress in this paper)and output scale,is a frontier and difficult topic in current research.This paper studies this issue from the transnational level,the domestic regional level and the industry level,and analyzes the non-linear impact of economic policy uncertainty on output and technological progress,and the role of technological progress in the process of economic policy uncertainty affecting output.On this basis,this paper further compares and analyzes the effectiveness of different macro-control policies on output and technological progress under uncertain environment.This paper defines the connotation of economic policy uncertainty based on the existing research,then determines the measurement method of economic policy uncertainty.This paper systematically combs the related theories of economic policy uncertainty,technological progress and output.This paper summarizes and evaluates the evolution of technological progress in the theory of economic growth,explains the internal logic of the uncertainty of state intervention and economic policy,and analyzes the effect of the uncertainty of economic policy on output and technological progress based on the theory of real options and the theory of external financing premium.In terms of research methods,this paper effectively combines the global vector autoregression model with the nonparametric econometric model,proposes the semi parametric global vector autoregression model,and gives the specific estimation method,which solves the instrumental problem of analyzing the nonlinear impact of economic policy uncertainty on output and technological progress.On the basis of empirical analysis,this paper analyzes the characteristics and internal relations of economic policy uncertainty,technological progress and output growth,and then comprehensively analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on output and technological progress from transnational level,domestic regional level and industrial level.This paper further studies the effectiveness of the government’s macro-control policies on output and technological progress under the uncertain environment.The following aspects have been obtained.Aiming at the fact that the existing literature ignores the international dynamic transmission of economic policy uncertainty and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on total output,this paper analyzes the transnational transmission of economic policy uncertainty in China,India,Japan,Britain and the United States,as well as the transnational differences of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on output and technological progress by constructing a global vector autoregressive model.The results show that:(1)The economic policy uncertainty of the United States has a strong impact on developed countries,but a weak impact on China and India.China’s economic policy uncertainty has a positive transmission to other countries,but the intensity is weaker than that of the United States.The economic policy uncertainty of developing countries is more easily transmitted among developing countries,and the transmission effect is not strong.(2)The influence of economic policy uncertainty on total output and technological progress is different from country to country.Developed countries’ output and technological progress are more vulnerable to the impact of their own economic policy uncertainty,while developing countries China and India are less affected by the impact of their own economic policy uncertainty.The proportion of China’s technological progress in the path of output influenced by economic policy uncertainty is close to Britain and the United States.At the regional level,this paper examines how economic policy uncertainty affects the operation of China’s macro-economy.Theoretical analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will affect the growth rate of human capital accumulation,and then affect economic growth.Furthermore,the semi parametric global vector autoregressive model is used for empirical study.The results show that:(1)the economic policy uncertainty has a non-linear effect on the technological progress of the three regions.When the economic policy uncertainty index is low,the economic policy uncertainty of the eastern and central regions has a positive promoting effect on the technological progress with the increase of the economic policy uncertainty.However,the economic policy uncertainty in the western region has a negative biasing effect on technological progress as economic policy uncertainty increases.(2)There are also spatial and regional differences in the nonlinear effects of economic policy uncertainty on economic output.When the uncertainty index of economic policy is low,it has no obvious effect on promoting or restraining the economic output of the three regions.However,with the increase of economic policy uncertainty,it has a strong inhibitory effect on output,and this partial effect increases with the increase of economic policy uncertainty.Among them,the inhibition effect on economic growth in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions.Based on the above analysis,this paper further investigates the non-linear impact of economic policy uncertainty on industrial output and the regulatory role of technological progress.The results show that:(1)The economic policy uncertainty has a significant inverted "U" type nonlinear impact on the industry output.Technological progress has a positive regulatory effect on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on industrial output.Technological progress can promote industrial output when the economic policy uncertainty is low,and reduce the adverse impact of economic policy volatility when the economic policy uncertainty index is high.(2)The economic policy uncertainty has a significant inverted "U" effect on the output of cyclical industry and tertiary industry,but the positive regulatory effect of technological progress is more obvious in tertiary industry.After a comprehensive analysis of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth,this paper discusses the effectiveness of macro-control policies in the uncertain environment by constructing tvp-var model and counterfactual analysis method.The results show that:(1)Under the uncertainty environment,the effect of interest rate rise on output is negative,and the effect on technological progress is positive,which is mainly reflected in the short term;under uncertainty,the effect of interest rate change on output and technological progress is time-varying,and the effect of price based monetary policy on output is more effective under medium uncertainty.(2)Under the environment of economic policy uncertainty,credit growth can effectively promote output growth in the short term,and the effect of credit growth on output growth and technological progress does not exist time-varying effect;uncertainty environment will reduce the regulatory effect of credit policy on output,and the impact of credit policy on technological progress is not significant.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations and research prospects according to the research results and the current economic environment of China.