Real Estate Investment Risk Analysis And Evaluation Method

With the rapid growth of national economy in recent years, the realty enterprise in our country takes on a nice developing tendency. However, under the condition of market economy, none trade gains all the time without any loss, especially under today's economic globalization. In the back of highly developed realty enterprise, the investment risk becomes greater day by day. Therefore, when we decide on realty program investment, we should not only consider profit, but also predict the risks exactly.This thesis consults some comparatively mature theories and methods in the study of realty investment risk of home and abroad; and relate the actual situations of realty development in our country; as well as employ the scientific analytical method and the corresponding mathematical and financial means. On the above basis, this thesis makes a systematic study and elaboration on realty investment risk ranging from risk identification and risk measurement to risk avoidance, etc. Furthermore, with the combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, it summarizes a set of practical risk evaluation systems on realty investment decision—AHP investment risk synthetic evaluation method. In accordance with several greatly-influenced risks such as trade supply-demand risk, interest risk, decision risk and management risk, a risk evaluation is set up, which can make a fixed quantity of all kinds of realty investment risks. Meanwhile, it puts forward the corresponding risk avoidance strategies that provide the valuable decision basis on realty investment risk.The thesis covers five parts. At first, it introduces the study background in the preface. Then, it discusses the basic concept and its influential factors of realty investment risk. In the second part, it identifies all kinds of risks in different realty investment phases and item types and sets up a function model about realty investment risk. In the third part, it introduces several methods of measuring realty investment risk and compares their merits and defects. It focuses on AHP investment risk synthetic evaluation method. Finally, it makes a detailed analysis of Weifang Golden Horse International Commercial Building item based on the above methods. It also provides a fixed quantity of the above greatly influenced risks by using AHP investment risk...