Scenario Planning Strategy In Emerging Technologies

Emerging technologies are characterized with a high degree of uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and "creative destruction", so it brings challenges to traditional management methods which built on the basis of continuity and emphasize the harmony, rationality and optimum. In an era of change, stable environment has been no longer exist, emerging technologies enterprises are in the frequent changes, changes of the environment require enterprises to use a new way of thinking to consider the strategy ,that is dynamic, flexible strategies. The research object of this paper is strategic development for emerging technology, starts from the characteristics of emerging technologies, analyzes the characteristics of scenario planning and environmental uncertainty deeply, discuss the principles and ideas of dealing with the future environmental uncertainties by scenario planning. On this basis, combine the strategic characteristics of emerging technologies, analyzes the basic ideas, methodological framework and process of strategic development for emerging technology deeply. Ultimately achieve the purposes of dealing with high degree of uncertainty of emerging technologies.The paper introduces the research background, research object, research approaches and research contents at first. Chapter two reviews the concept and features of emerging technologies, the origin, development, definition and use of scenario planning. Comparing scenario planning and traditional strategic planning tools, and then summarizes the use of scenario planning in the strategic management. Scenario planning is recognized as an effective tool for strategy formulation under uncertain environment, so in the research of chapter three, we focus study perspective on the uncertainty, analyzes the uncertainty and environmental uncertainty. Discusses the characteristics of scenario planning, points out that the characteristics of scenario planning decide that scenario planning can be used to deal with and reduce the environmental uncertainty, then discusses the principles and ideas of dealing with the future environmental uncertainty by using scenario planning. Chapter four is a core part of the thesis. Based on analyzing the strategic characteristics of emerging technologies, researches the basic ideas and methodological framework of using scenario planning to formulate strategies for emerging technologies innovatively, to illustrate the process of strategy development for the emerging technologies by using scenario planning, guide the application of this method, chapter five researches 3G as an example.At present foreign countries pay more attention to emerging technologies. In recent years, the domestic research has also increased, but come to look wholly, the domestic research of emerging technologies lack combination with practice. Although the third generation mobile communication is a relatively mature emerging technology, its market prospects for development are still very uncertain. This paper attempts to use scenario planning to plan 3G's market prospects of China for the next five years. Propose coping strategies and policy recommendations for each scenario from the national aspect. Provide the idea for the country's guidance to the 3G market to a certain extent.The innovations of this paper lie in: (1) Have carried on deeper study to the characteristics of the emerging technologies. (2) Have studied the ideas of scenario planning dealing with uncertainties and the way of reducing uncertainties.(3) Discussed the basic ideas of using scenario planning to develop strategies for emerging technologies.(4) Explored methodological framework of using scenario planning to develop strategies for emerging technologies.