| Climate change is the most significant environmental challenge which we face in the21st century. It related to the existence and development of humen beings. So, changing the traditional high-carbon economic development model, searching for a low-carbon developmental path and developing the low-carbon economy whose main feature is low energy consumption, low emission and low pollution are becoming a global strategic initiative. China has proposed a reduced emission target that the carbon intensity in2020will be lower than2005by40%-45%. Shandong Province, which has discharged a large amount of CO2, should make a greater effort in the reduced carbon emission activity. The purpose of this issue is to choose those emerging industries’ low carbon technologies which have the priority to be developed. According to the developing pathes of low carbon technologies in the worldwide and the industrial structure, geography and resources of Shandong Province, this paper researches the developing routes of the emerging industries and low carbon technologies in Shandong Province. After clarifying the developmental direction and focus, Shandong Province could promote its industrial structure adjustment and optimization, improve its energy efficiency, reduce its emission intensity of carbon dioxide and enhance its sustainable development capacity further.Based on the developmental foundation of low carbon economy in Shandong Province, this paper combines statistical analysis methodology, scenario analysis methodology and IPAC-AIM technology model, and then does a lot of researches in energy demand forecasting and emerging industrial low carbon technologies’ developmental routes of Shandong Province. The main works are as follows:First, investigate the research status of emerging industrial low carbon technologies’routes in the domestic and foreign, including those coastal provinces or cities in the domestic and those developed countries, such as American, EU and Japan. Then investigate the foundation of low carbon economy in Shandong Province, including population, economic developmental status, industrial structure, energy structure, energy consumption, emission status of CO2, resource status and the achievement in developing low carbon economy of Shandong Province.Second, adopt the statistical analysis methodology to forecast the energy demand of Shandong Province. With the historical statistic data of Shandong Province, grey model, metabolic grey model, combined model of metabolic grey model and linear regression and combined model of metabolic grey model and nonlinear regression those four types of energy demand forecasting models are built. According to the comparison of the forecasting results of those models, the combined model of metabolic grey model and power function regression is chosen to predict the future energy demand of Shandong Province because of its best effect.Finally, the classified definition of low carbon technologies is introduced at first. Then considering the application, energy saving potential, carbon mitigation potential, prospect and how many emerging industries which have been planned by Shandong Province could be drived, the combined model of scenario analysis methodology and IPAC-AIM technology model is built to choose a group of low carbon technologies which are suitable for the emerging industries’development in Shandong Province. After three kinds of low carbon technologies’developing scenarios are built, the results of three scenarios are compared to draw a conclusion that those low carbon technologies could achieve a good effect of energy saving in the low carbon scenario. And then the effect of carbon mitigation is verified from the view of carbon intensity, while the status of carbon trading and CDM is introduced to analysis carbon trading’s effect on promoting the application of low carbon technologies. Furthermore, several policy recommendations are put forward for the development of low carbon technologies in Shandong Province. |
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