Dongting Lake And Major Grain Producing Areas Farmers' Income Fluctuations Warning Research

Since the "three rural problems" was put forward, the problem ofpeasant's income receives more and more attention. Now, there are lots ofstudies about peasant's income thoroughly analyzing the problem fromdifferent angles, and propose counter-mesures.This paper analyzes the current situation of peasant's income and thefactors that affect peasant's income increasing in Dongting Lake area inHunan Province, and set up the fluctuation early warning system ofpeasant's per capita net income growth rate. Firstly, a series of indicatorclosely related to peasant's income has been selected and classified asleading indicator, lag indicator and consistent indicator through calculating.Secondly, calculate diffusion index and composite index of the threeindicator group respectively, and predict the fluctuation trend of peasant'sper capita net income growth rate in short term. Finally, calculate thecomprehensive early warning indicator, delimit the critical point of eachindicator, and observe the regions that each indicator lies in, so as to adoptappropriate measures as soon as possible, smooth out the fluctuation ofpeasant's income, and protect the benefit of peasants.On the analysis basis of peasants' income fluctuation early warning,the paper put forward measures and suggestions about increasing DongtingLake area's peasants' income. The reality way is to adjust agriculturalstructure and develop efficiency agriculture; the important way is totransfer surplus agricaltrual labor force and develop non-agrcultral industry;and the basic way is to deepen village reform, and fasten systeminnovation.