Changzhou From 2006 To 2010 Forecasts Of Electricity Demand Study

Being a very important element of living and producing, electricity has a close relation to the social economy and living. It is still clearly known that "short of power" has brought us a negative affection for the past 50 years. If we make a analyze to the main reason of large scale power-short, we understand that besides fast developing of economy, unreasonable developing plan attributes much. Anyway, demand forecast of future plays a key role to scientifically planning electrical developing.Maximum real power load forecast, power demand forecast, reactive load forecast, load curve and it's eigenvalue are the main content of power demand forecast. Reactive power forecast mainly concerns increasing transmitting efficiency, lowering down net loss, improving quality of net operation. Forecasting for load curve and it's eigenvalue is to analyze operation situation of different time of a day. Forecasting for realative power, load curve and it's eigenvalue does not play the key role to the result calculating of translating capacity. Hence, the paper focus the main content on the demand forecast and maximum load forecast in a tendency to find a demand forecast model of Changzhou City to give accurate data for electrical developing plan.After developing for decades of years, the theory and technology of forecast is going to be mature. On the basis of conventional method, the paper gives a gray-multivariate linear regression coupling forecasting model. The given model concerns total demand and maximum load as the forecasting object, and historical data such as industrial demand, GDP, GDP per person, financial income and so on as affecting factor. For the first step, finding the main affecting factors by calculating and analyzing the gray relevancy between all affecting factors and forecasting objects. Secondly, establishing a group of multivariate linear regression equations to find the optimal forecasting equation by notability and DW verifying, on the basis of putting forecasting objects and main affecting factors as dependent and independent variable relatively. Finally, giving out the forecasted value of independent variable included in the optimum equation by gray forecast theory, and forecasted value of forecast object could be calculated by iterating the forecast value of independent variable back to the optimum equation. Forecasted value is found relative satisfied after compared with the real data, and theoretically verified.A suggestion of construction of power net projects (of 110kV and above ) is given, by planning the developing of electric net of Changzhou City, depending on the forecasted value. Also factors such as present situation of power supply and so on are concerned. Balancing the demand and supply for year 2006 to 2010 of the city is an important aspect of the work for giving the suggestion.