Statistical Analysis And Forecast Of China's Electric Power Development

Electric power is the "vanguard" of the economic development,and its development directly impacts on economic and social development, which has become a consensus. Since the reform and opening up, China's electric power development has made a series of remarkable achievements. Step by step, power generation capacity has reached to 790 million kilowatts in the end of 2008 since it has broken 100 million kilowatts in 1987, and it will be expected to exceed 1 billion kilowatts by 2010. Generating capacity has exceeded 1 trillion kwh in 1995, and by the year 2000 it has reached to 1.37 trillion kwh, which has even reached to 3.4 trillion kwh in 2008. On this basis, China's resource saving and comprehensive utilization has improved continuously, and the emissions of pollutants have been controlled. The gap of electric power equipment technology narrows continuously. Renewable energy made significant progress. However, China's electric power development also exists a number of issues. There are still some gaps between the international level with the main technical indicators. Parameters of thermal power are not advanced enough. Economics of domestic large unit also lags behind corresponding import unit. Clean coal power generation technology and nuclear technology progress slowly. The localization of Large-scale supercritical (ultra) units, large-scale gas turbines, large-scale pumped-storage devices and high-voltage direct current power transmission equipment are still on a low level.Self-development and design of manufacturing capacity is not strong, which can't meet the needs of electric power industrial upgrading and technological progress. Besides that, power structure is not reasonable, which has led directly the national electricity supply and demand's tension, power generation installed capacity utilization (use of hours) significantly increased, power rationing measures being used in some areas since the second half of 2002. From 2003 to 2004, balance of the country's electricity supply and demand continues to overall tight. In 2008, China began a new round of power restriction due to the Olympic Games and some unexpected events, thus enterprises of many regions can only guarantee a half-day per day electricity for production which has further impacted to China's economic development under the environment of international economic depression.This article is based on this background to investigate and research. Research for the electric power development have been proceeded a lot both in China and abroad, but the vast majority are based on engineering way of thinking, combined with certain methods to analyse (such as statistical, economic, etc.). This paper is based on the development of China's overall electric power as the research object, using statistical thinking and methods to forecast and analyse.This article firstly reviewed the history of China's electric power development, finding out the present situation, deficiencies and direction in future of China's electric power development. Combined with domestic and foreign policy situation, using internal data of electricity produce sector, statistical and historical inductive method to identify the development pattern of China's electricity production, and then infer China's electricity production in the next few years. Compare data of electricity consumption from the National Bureau of Statistics website, ZhongHong database and National Grid. Use gray prediction to predict, and completely use statistical methods to model and calculate, and through three kinds of testing methods to prove the validity of analytical models to ensure the authenticity and reliability of the results. Through the comparison of predictions, obtained that supply and demand of China's electric power will reach to a balance in the next few years. Take fully account of the impact of actual situation, such as the international financial crisis in the beginning of 2008 and domestic demands expanding in 2009, to analysis that our supply and demand of electric power balance is low-level and fragile. We must continue to reinforce electricity production in order to ensure China's electric power development sustained as well as economic. Linking up actual situation, this article brings up a large number of feasible suggestions at last to provide methods for China's electric power industry as well as our macro-economic to develop scientifically, rationally and long-term, so that our economy can continue to develop steadily.