Study Of International Crude Oil Transportation Market, The China Factor

With the trend in Economical Globalization and the rapid development of national economy, China has made a more and more enormous influence on the international trade. For the direct realation between international economy and logistics industry, especially the shipping industry, "China factor", the impact of China on the worldwide shipping industry, has gained more attention. As an important part of energy, crude oil, has been attached more strategic value for China, the big energy-consuming economy. Thus, it is of important value for the national oil shipping industry to make the study on the "China factor" in the view of world crude oil shipping market.The thesis firstly makes a brief introduction to the world crude oil transportation market, then analyses the relation between the demand and the supply in the market. Next, the attention is focused on the national crude oil shipping market, analysing how the "China factor" develops in a qualitative way.In the following chapter, the forecast of demand of crude oil in the international market is made by SPSS, then tests and comparisions is made among results from different model. Based on above analysis, the international crude oil shipping market is divided into several main factors accoding to the principal of systematization and being scientific, typical, adoptable. Then, the the total import of crude oil, and main regional fators are viewed as a grey system. In the follwing, the improved GRA model, Grey Entroy Analysis, is adopted to carry out quantitative analysis on how the "China factor" influences the world crude oil shipping market, mainly showing the growing impact of China on the crude oil transportation market on different stages and its trend. Through the analysis from the positivist view, it is proved that the China fator did and will have more significant and persistant influence on the world crude oil shipping market.Lastly, considering such great value of "China factor", the thesis gives some suggestions about how to take the advantage of "China factor" to develop the national crude oil shipping industry. In closing, it also points out the issues worthing further research. It is exepcted that the paper could give people a clearer unstanding of China's role on the crdue oil shipping market, act as the reference to those who are engaged in international crude oil transportation and furthermore make full use of "China factor" to establish maritime development strategy and policies, thus being of the consultative value.