Empirical Research On Urban Basic Pension Insurance Gaps

Currently, the system of endowment insurance has been reforming in Jiangsu Province; the focus of the reform is to change the system from pay-as-you-go to fully-funded. In this process, the most important issue is the gap becoming greatly big. Quantitative studying old-age insurance for demand and supply problems, establishing future pension fund demand and supply in order to build old-age insurance gap model are very practical significance on both theoretical research and practical applications.Based on welfare economics, theory of OLG, theory of social security of Demand, theory of social security of Supply, theory and method of GM(1.1),the paper analysis influencing factor,built the model of demand and supply of social security, and then calculate the gap, on the end giving some advice.Firstly, based on document, the paper analysis the influencing factor, they are internal factors, such as the lever of economic development, the growth rate of average wage, price, external factors, such as legal retirement age, social average residual time of life, substitute rate and so on.Secondly, the paper gives the condition, and builds the model of social security of Demand and Supply, upon this, establish the model of gap.Finally, the paper simulates nine policy of Jiangsu province, using way of factor analysis and way of reliable analysis to examine the model, and gives some specific advice on the view of government, company and workers.