Study On The Releasing Mechanism And Moderate Scale Of Chinese National Social Security Fund Under The Situation Of The Unbalance Of Financial Income And Expenditure In Endowment Insurance

In recent years,the rapid development of aging population has led to an unprecedented impact on the system of endowment insurance in China.According to A Report on the Development of Old-age Pension in 2016,the increasing speed of expenditure on basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers in 2015 was about 10%,among which there are six provinces that had financial investment but the account of old-age pension was still in a situation that income was less than expenditure and thus the surplus of the current period was negative.As for the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,in most provinces,personal payment is about 200 yuan;the payment is too low,and in income and expenditure,financial investment occupies a high percentage of 70.Thus it can be seen that in the future,the sustainability of the systems of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers and basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents is troubling;the cause of social insurance in China will be confronted with severe challenges.In 2000,in order to deal with the necessity of social insurance during a peak time of aging of population in the future,China has established “National Fund of Social Insurance,” as strategic reserves for national important old-age pension.However,at present,the academic circles lack a prospective study of such problems as release mechanism and moderate scale of the strategic reserves for old-age pension.It is a topic that is worth in-depth research,regarding how large the scale of reserves of the social security fund should be,and how to release the fund so as to make the best use of the reserve fund.This is significant for improving the capacity of the national social security fund to resist against the crisis of the aging of population,and promoting the sustainability of the cause of endowment insurance and even the stability of the society.Therefore,this paper constructs a systematic kinetic model of the national social security fund making up the gap of old-age pension,by using the method of systematic kinetics;it simulates the basic operations of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers,basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,and national social security fund from 2016 to 2065.The result of simulation shows,the basic endowment insurance of China as a whole will have the phenomenon of the unbalance of income and expenditure.A gap of old-age pension will occur in 2037,and the peak time of paying old-age pension will be from 2055 to 2065.If all the gaps of old-age pension would be made up by the national social security fund,then the reserve fund would be all used up.This paper prospectively puts forth several kinds of release mechanism of reserve fund that can be referenced,and continuously provides feedback and amendments by using dynamic simulation,and explores the moderate scale of reserve fund's sustainable and effective operations under the release mechanism.Research shows that under the precondition that the national social security fund could maintain the current speed of input and of preserving and increasing the value,as well as the minimum of the overall precipitation funds,reserve fund would start to release when the gap reaches 26% of the expenditure of old-age pension;the releasing period would be from 2051 to 2058,and it would be appropriate if the reserve fund reaches 70 trillion before its release;if reserve fund would only be released during the peak time of the gap of old-age pension from 2056 to 2065,then it would be appropriate if the reserve fund would reach 90 trillion before its release;if reserve fund would take the responsibility of making up 42% of the gap of old-age pension each year,the release period would be from 2037 to 2065,and then it would be appropriate if the reserve fund would reach 18 trillion before its release.