| Based on the theory study, a case study was made in the city of Xianyang, Shaanxi Province. Firstly, we evaluated the ecosystem service values on urban scale and analyzed the factors that has influences on ecosystem values by the methods of correlation analysis and path analysis; then made a forecast on the development of ecosystem service value in the future, using the grey forecasting model, moving and average prediction, and exponential smoothing ecasts; finally, based on the consideration of land resource use, socio-economic development, taking the maximized ecosystem services value as the planning goal, we built a grey linear planning model and developed a series of configuration optimization programs and strategies. The results indicated:(1) The ecosystem service value is improving ever year: its value is improving from 7.119 billion RMB to 7.719 billion RMB from the year 1996 to 2005; the average increasing rate is 0.94%. The reason for this sort of increase is the forest and garden plots which have high ecosystem service values index are booming.(2) The ecosystem service value will reach to 823691.4 RMB in the year of 2010 based on the forecast, higher than the total value in the year of 2005, which comes to a conclusion that the ecosystem service value will continue to improve, it will increase 111813.67 RMB in 15 years, average increasing rate is 1.12%. The ecosystem service function is in amelioration, eco-environment is improving.(3) Considering the current socio-economic conditions, we can come to three optimization programs, the ecosystem service value of each of these three programs are higher than 8.25 billion RMB, higher than 7.72 billion in 2005 and forecast value 8.23 billion (in the year of 2010), which means all these three programs can improve the current eco-environment.(4) Protecting farmland, Improving forest lot and water area or so, all these are needed, which is essential for sustainable development and eco-environment construction. |
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