Supermarket Chains In China Financial Risk Early Warning Model

The paper empirically study on the enterprises' financial risk prewarning model, based on the super-market industry.Since the rapid progress of super-market industry in 21^st century, analyzers, investors and managers of the firm need a more useful model to find the enterprises' financial risk. The paper is including two parts. At first, the paper expounds the resourced of financial risks of the industry from outer environment and inner management. Then, it provides a logistic regression model based on the enterprises' financial data and statistics method.The research is based on some financial risk theories. At first, analyzing the risk resource of Chinese super-market industry. Then choose the most appropriate financial ratio as independent variable, which could be reflect the industry characteristic. Through building the financial information system by SPSS 13.0 for Windows, developing and utilizing information resources from 2003 annual reports, the model has obvious advantage on attribute screening and prewarning. And modified by factor analysis method, the new model is built, and the prewarning precision is 72.41%. At last, the model is modified by factor analysis method, choosing three factors as independent variable, which is composed the most information of financial ratios. The prewarning precision of the modified model can be 79.31%. From compared and tested the ability to prewam the financial risk between the new financial prewarning model and the classic model, we found that the new model is better in constructing financial prewarning. The prewarning ability of the new model has been proved.