Listed Companies' Financial Early-warning Model And Empirical Analysis

The market economy with keen competition has offered an immense space for enterprise to develop, but it has hidden countless rapids and dangerous shoal yet. They may be involved in the swirl failing because of carelessness slightly. It has been common that enterprises get into a difficult position because of the financial crisis and even have to declare bankruptcy. Crises of most enterprise are the gradual worse course. If we can detect the question existing in the operation activity of enterprise in time, perceive the signal of the financial crisis early, predict financial affairs of enterprise, enterprise operator can take the valid measure and improve management to prevent financial failure effectively at the bud phase that financial crisis appear. So it has not only academic value, but also important guidance function to the financial management practice of enterprises to structure the early warning administrative system of enterprise's financial.This text, on the basis of drawing lessons from the research results of this field, has systematically described the definition, functions, purposes and important meanings of the early warning system of enterprise's financial affairs. It has set up the supervision on enterprise's financial risk and business risk of early warning index system of discernment by utilizing the existing financial index of rational in reason.The key content of this text is to establish a multi-warning model combining Z-score model and Cash flowing prewarning systems according to the research of enterprises warning model and analysis of the real examples and achievement of this fields. The model has been checked with 1999 and 2000's financial data of 15 normal companies and 15 especial companies that had been marked in 2001. Through statistics and analysis of a large number financial data of the 30 enterprises, we obtained the new scope of Z's value, and drown the conclusion that the multi-warning model can be better to prewarn companies'financial affairs.The author analyzed the real examples with 5 year's financial file of AMOI ELECTRONICS CO. LTD and validated the conclusion of the article.