Based On The Expected Investment Risk Metrics Model

This paper will firstly study the reasonable anticipation of the investors in the securities business, thinking over both the subjective psychology and the objective rationality, then quantify the qualitative cognition of the share-risk making use of the quantitative analysis to the time series, and establish the anticipate model by napping the mean of the history yield.Secondly, risk is of relativity. The departure of the real yield to the anticipant one can create invest-chance and invest-loss. Make the comparison introducing the risk preference coefficients, this paper can educe the Loss Tradeoff Ratio (LTR) model, namely the excess yield per invest-loss can tradeoff. Empirical analysis finds that the LTR model is a new risk-measure method which is more reasonable and closer to the psychology of the investors than the classical invest theory.Finally this paper also study the risk-indicate mechanism by selecting some indexes from the macroeconomic and the microcosmic lays.