The Distribution Fitting And Evaluation Of Ibnr Reserve In Narrow Sense

Policy reserve is the debt of insurance company to policy-holders. As the reserve, it should be paid to policy-holders when the insured risk took place, so it is an essential role it played in the developing and long-run planning of insurance companies. Policy reserve evaluation is an important part of insurance company debt evaluation, which means it should be well executed under all circumstances including performance examining and product price setting.Non-life policy reserve is the reserve for non-life insurance companies, it is special in evaluation because of the feature quite different from other reserves. Non-life policy reserve could be divided into several groups by different criterions. In common sense, the overall reserve and balance reserve could not be counted as policy reserve, but in this essay the author chose a more precise criterion. Among all these categories, preparation reserve is the most uncertain and the most important one, the IBNR reserve is even more unpredictable. This essay is working on the method for evaluating IBNR reserve, after studying the different method of predecessors, the author created his own method and model in another way.Five parts constituted this essay.Chapter 1 introduced the definition of policy reserve and the necessity of evaluating it, this chapter made the purpose of this article clear.Chapter 2 compared the existing methods for IBNR reserve evaluation and analyzed the strength and weakness for these methods..Chapter 3 created the narrow sense IBNR reserve distribution model and evaluating method, after studying the existing methods.Chapter 4 introduced data into the model and proved this model works well.Chapter 5 made adjustment to this model to make it better.